The battle for Punjab

Three months after the dramatic change of government in Islamabad, Pakistan’s political and economic turmoil is far from over. What was carried out as a surgical procedure in April by unravelling an unsteady coalition has brought unforeseen post-operative complications. What went wrong? The short answer is: almost everything.

To recap, the 1992 World Cup-winning captain challenged the umpire’s marching orders. The cricketer, who used to pray atop the container for the umpire’s finger to go up back in 2014, now refuses to play as per the old rules. He claims that the people still support him – and brings out a number of his supporters regularly to prove the point.

Imran Khan failed to act judiciously by not dissolving the assemblies before the no-confidence motion against him was tabled. In desperation, he tried to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections at a time when the particular rule no longer allowed him to do so. As a prime minister, he acted like someone who wanted to either violate the rules or throw them in the dustbin – the actual representation of the term, ‘my way or the highway’.

In another unforeseen development, the umpire’s ‘neutrality’ in the removal of Khan led to adverse reactions among the veterans. As weeks passed, his gambit appeared to be paying off. His supporters turned up in droves to challenge the ‘imported government’. This mass mobilization increased the pressure on state institutions which are believed to have played a role in cancelling the 25th May long march.

Imran Khan is down but by no means out; he is a fighter and his relentless attacks on the coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif – already beset with a global energy price hike – have pushed the ruling parties to the wall. In a situation obeying Murphy’s law, small coalition partners are also getting impatient as the promises made to them haven’t been honoured yet.

Troubles don’t come alone. The Sharif family’s home province Punjab is becoming a major battleground of Imran’s political and psychological war against them. It could very well be the stage for a rehearsal of early general elections so fervently demanded by the PTI and put off by the ruling coalition as they try to complete the remaining year of the legislature.

As days pass, the relevance of the upcoming Punjab by-elections assumes great importance. In 2018, Imran Khan, as the prime minister, mishandled the country-sized province when instead of naming a party stalwart as Punjab’s chief minister, he brought a relatively unknown political figure to deal with the future of 120 million people. Later, he refused to make amends. While it is true that some former prime ministers had followed this route, the selection of a lightweight candidate as speedy Shehbaz Sharif’s successor eventually led to the PTI’s lacklustre performance in the largest province.

Now the chips are down as the by-elections are to be held for 20 provincial assembly seats on July 17, which were declared vacant on account of desertion by a group of MPAs previously affiliated with the PTI. This could be a make-or-break day for political formations as accusations of pre-poll rigging fly with greater frequency and intensity.

Both the PML-N and PTI are seeing the by-elections as a crucial step to move forward. The election result will also clarify who between Hamza Shehbaz or Pervaiz Elahi will emerge victorious in the chief minister election on July 22. The outcome will have a direct bearing on the perceived fairness of the electoral process in Punjab and beyond as we move to the next general elections, likely to be held latest by October/November 2023.

The results of the by-elections for 20 provincial assembly seats in Punjab will also help gauge Imran’s claims of popular support following his removal in April 2022. He resorted to desperate steps which showed his aversion to playing by the rules. In a state of panic caused by the realization that he was no longer considered indispensable, Imran tried to dissolve the National Assembly. Failing that, he tried to derail the process, which ended in the resignation by the speaker of the National Assembly.

PTI MNAs’ attempt to resign from the National Assembly while simultaneously drawing their salaries and allowances is in total disrespect of democratic norms. It is well-known that Khan has overruled his party MNAs’ pleas against leaving their seats. Nor have they responded to the National Assembly’s calls to verify their resignations individually. This is a case of ‘to have your cake and eat it too’.

Before we try to assess the results of the Punjab by-elections and their aftermath, it may be worthwhile to think of the growing deterioration of ethics in the country’s politics and governance. Is it right for politicians to occupy high offices while they are under trial on corruption charges? They should voluntarily leave those positions and opt for the Shahid Khaqan Abbasi model till their cases are disposed of.

Similarly, it is about time to restore the sanctity and impartiality of the office of the president, badly eroded by the incumbent’s partisan attitude after his party lost the no-confidence vote.

What happens on and after July 17 can have serious repercussions for the future of democracy. The losing party is likely to question the fairness of the elections in 20 constituencies, thereby throwing a spanner in the electoral process in the period ahead. In that eventuality, a review of the electoral system would be badly required, hopefully leading to urgently needed electoral reforms and a code of conduct.

The writer can be reached at: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com