Imran’s popularity

Former prime minister Imran Khan has succeeded in attracting large crowds at his recent public rallies in Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore. He has succeeded in mobilizing his core support base. The majority of participants in these public rallies were middle class people from rich and middle-class urban areas. The PTI also enjoys solid support among the layers of educated middle class people in semi-urban and rural areas.

The three public gatherings clearly show that Imran Khan is undoubtedly still popular among certain sections of the population, enjoying solid support among the upper and middle layers of the middle class and especially among young people.

But his popularity among working and poor masses has dipped. His support among working class youth is not as vocal and active as in the middle class youth.

Political trends among young voters haven’t changed much since the 2013 general elections. The PTI is still the most popular party for young educated middle-class voters. Although this group of young voters is quite vocal, they still have a narrow base in the posh and middle class areas of the cities. The Pakistani middle class is not more than 10 percent of the population.

The PTI also has a clear edge on social media, with a far bigger presence on social media spaces than the PPP, PML-N and other parties. The middle-class support base gives the PTI a big advantage on its social media campaigns.

On the basis of three big public rallies and the dominant position of the PTI on social media, some pro-Imran analysts and TV anchors have already drawn the conclusion that Imran Khan is the most popular leader in the country and will likely win the next general elections. They are arguing that many people are buying Imran Khan’s narrative of foreign conspiracy to oust him from power. The anti-American narrative is gaining support. They are also arguing that the newly formed coalition government is running away from the promise of holding fresh elections immediately because of Imran’s rising popularity.

They say this, despite knowing very well that the Election Commission of Pakistan is not in the position to hold elections before October. The ECP has clearly spelt out the reasons before the honourable Supreme Court. They are trying to create the impression that the PPP, PML-N and JUI-F are frightened of the rising popularity of Imran Khan and using lame excuses to delay the elections.

The PTI has four strong points at the moment. One is the personal popularity of Imran Khan; two, the middle class support base; three, its strong presence on social media; and fourth its ability to organise big public rallies. Will these factors be enough for the PTI to win the next elections?

If we look at the history of the PTI since 1996 then the answer is no. Imran Khan was very popular as a cricketer in 1997 when he contested his first ever elections. He was undoubtedly the biggest celebrity and mega star Pakistan ever produced. He was a national hero. He raised billions of rupees for the Shaukat Khanum Cancer Hospital. But he still lost all the seats he contested in 1997 – both the National Assembly seats he contested from Lahore with big margins. His party failed to make a big political impact in 1997. In the 2002 general elections, Imran just won one seat from Mianwali, again failing to translate his personal popularity into a political asset.

Take the 2013 general election as an example to prove my point here. In the 2013 elections, Imran Khan was very popular. Most of the mainstream media backed him and provided unprecedented coverage to him. From October 2011 to May 2013, Imran organized the biggest ever public rallies. During that period, the PTI emerged as the third large political force in the country that challenged the political hegemony of the PPP and PML-N.

Imran enjoyed solid support among the urban upper and middle class population. PTI candidates did exceptionally well in the posh areas of Lahore, Peshawar, Multan and Karachi, and the party managed to win just half a dozen seats of the National Assembly from Punjab. In fact, PTI candidates in 90 constituencies of the National Assembly failed to save their deposits.

The 2013 general election once again proved that personal popularity and celebrity status doesn’t automatically translate into political capital. A strong base among the middle class is not enough to her parts of the country. Imran Khan also ignored party organisation while in power. There are many odds. It will not be smooth sailing for the PTI.

The writer is a freelance journalist.