Who holds the ‘trump card’?

No one knows till this day as who will be the ultimate winner in the ongoing ‘power politics’ and who actually holds the ‘trump card,’ Prime Minister Imran Khan, former President Asif Ali Zardari or the ‘third umpire’, as political match between government and opposition starts today.

All important and decisive session of the National Assembly will begin today, but in all probability, Speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser will adjourn it due to the death of an MNA. It will be important to see for how many days he will adjourn the session. Normally and traditionally in such cases, the session is adjourned for the next working day. Therefore, the session could be adjourned till Monday, March 28. But, in case he has something else in his mind as per directive of the prime minister or PTI core team, he could adjourn it for an indefinite period.

Today’s NA session is expected to be stormy and chances of ‘hangama’ could not be ruled out. The important question is when the Speaker would place the motion of no-confidence in the House.

Much depends on the outcome of the Supreme Court order in regard to the interpretation of Article 63(A) which deals with disqualification of an elected MNA or MPA.

The Speaker is not only in touch with the prime minister but also a part of PTI’s move to defeat the motion. He is quite active and trying to win over allies as well as PTI dissidents. So, all these developments are interlinked.

Now, if in the meantime Prime Minister Imran Khan unveils his ‘trump card’ in the public meeting in Islamabad on March 27 and says that he enjoys the confidence of people and the MNAs, the Speaker may call the session on Monday on a short notice.

No one till this day knows anything about the ‘mysterious card? Is it a major defection from the opposition or his all- important decision in regard to a major appointment? The PM is keeping the suspense but is categorical that the no-confidence motion would be defeated and he would not resign even if his government is removed.

The prime minister, who was holding cabinet meeting regularly, has not called it for the past one month. He has warned that he still holds the ‘trump card’ while opposition has opened all its cards in a hurry. Whether he really has something in his pocket or just trying to counter opposition through psychological tricks would soon be known.

Imran Khan is also in constant touch with his legal team to work out a strategy in the pre and post-vote of no-confidence situation.

Apparently, his make-or-break depends on the decision of his government’s three years old allies i.e. PMLQ, MQMP and BAP. Secondly, PM can announce new chief minister of Punjab giving the slot either to Tareen group or Aleem Khan. But, there is a possibility that he may agree to make Ch Pervaiz Elahi CM provided PMLQ, MQMP and BAP retain their position as government’s allies.

There is a remote chance of PM making the important decision regarding the key appointment as many in the PTI itself considered it as suicidal attack on himself.

Now, what are the cards former president and the most important opposition leader Asif Ali Zardari is holding? Like Imran Khan, he too is very confident of getting the prime minister removed through the vote of no-confidence. He has already worked out his plan A and B to get beyond the magic number of 172 votes against the PM. The plan A is smooth sailing with both PTI dissidents and allies announcing support to opposition in the next 24 hours. The plan B is complete support of allies minus dissidents.

The PMLN, which is in a most difficult position, also facing issues within but its real test will be to bring all its MNAs to the assembly on the day of voting on no-confidence motion. Politically, PMLN has a lot to lose in case the motion is defeated. But, even if the motion resulted in the fall of PM Imran Khan’s government they will not gain much except Imran Khan’s exit. Many PMLN leaders still believe the best option for them would have been to ensure free and fair elections in 2023. Defeat could break their tempo and its impact could come in the forthcoming local bodies elections.

As for the third umpire, they, at the moment, are observing the situation. The media reports about the establishment’s offer for mediation were not confirmed either by government and opposition. But, those who believe that they are merely watching the match as spectators are also not right as they could play their role if the situation goes out of control.

The writer is a columnist and analyst for Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MarzharAbbasGEO