No-trust move: Next 48 hours crucial

There could be two reasons why Prime Minister Imran Khan has decided to bring an estimated ‘one million’ people outside the Parliament House or at the D-Chowk, Islamabad a day before the vote on no-confidence motion. First is to pressurise his own party ‘dissidents’ and second, in case a vote is carried against him, he would go to container again on the same day.

Thus, there is every possibility that the crowd will remain there till the outcome of the ‘vote.’ If they succeed they would turn it into celebration and in case of defeat will convert it into protest ‘dharna’ again. He is in no mood to surrender and has already built the tempo by holding back-to-back public meetings, hitting the opposition hard, and has also questioned ‘neutrality,’ which his critics believe is a huge ‘U-turn’.

As tension building up to a battle of nerves on both sides, some independent political observers believe things could go out of control which would lead to political and economic instability. Some of the federal ministers, who themselves raised the tensions in the last few weeks through their statements, now calling both sides to cool down. But, the PM apparently is in no mood to do so. The opposition has also rejected their statements terming them as ‘eye-wash.’

Prime Minister Imran Khan is still confident that he would get cleanly bowled his rivals with his ‘in-swinging yorker'. But, what if the ‘umpire’ says it is ‘no-ball.’ It can seal the fate of the cricketer-turned-politician, who in the last three and half years of his government never came across such a situation where his own rank and file is in complete disarray at a time when he needed them most. Many believe much before the no-confidence motion us actually tabled things would be settled or cleared for either side.

Since the prime minister has already taken a ‘U-turn’ on a neutral umpire, there is every chance that he would not accept any adverse decision. One thing is certain he would fight till last. But, what has happened in the last few weeks has clearly exposed the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) internal rifts in all the four provinces, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.

In the next 24 or 48-hours, all would be cleared even much before the vote on no-confidence. Four government allies i.e. PMLQ, MQMP, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) are expected to announce their decision which could be ‘make-and-break’ for the prime minister. If they decide to go with the opposition, it would be all over for the PM provided the opposition's own rank and file remains intact.

Even if any one of the allied parties decides to abstain it would go in favour of the government and not for the opposition. The magic number is 172, and it is the opposition which has to bring them not only in the National Assembly but also to ensure that they would remain inside the Assembly Hall at the time of ‘voting.’

Secondly, what about the MNAs from the ruling PTI, which include those who are now either with Jehangir Khan Tareen or Aleem Khan, once stalwarts of Prime Minister Imran Khan. The government and the PTI have clearly shown their intention that if they come to the House their own houses could be targeted and ‘besieged’ by the PTI workers. Besides, Speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser, who perhaps, after PM’s criticism of ‘neutral persons’ decided to openly follow the government line, would not count any vote of any PTI dissident no matter what the rules and Article 63 (A) say.

The ruling party and their legal minds, despite differences of opinion, decided that the Speaker should take his decision and let the other party go to the Supreme Court.

If all the allies sided with the government, they would be in a much better position to defeat the motion as the Speaker would not allow the PTI dissidents to vote, and their votes would not be counted.

So, what will be the counterstrategy from the opposition side? They may go to the Supreme Court for interpretation of Article 63 (A) and for declaring the Speaker's ruling as illegal and unconstitutional.

It is certainly a ‘make-or-break’ situation for both sides. Victory for either side would boost their chances in the forthcoming local government elections and next year’s general elections. Prime Minister Imran Khan would certainly emerge as a strong leader if he defeats the opposition's move and would go hard on the three key opposition leaders, Asif Zardari, Shehbaz Sharif and Maulana Fazlur Rahman.

If he succeeds despite any allied party going against him, there is a possibility he would distance himself from that coalition partner. In case opposition succeeds in voting him out chances are that ruling party would be divided further and many may join the government-in-making as had been our tradition in the politics.

Everything will be decided this week as the Speaker is likely to call the NA session either today or tomorrow. But, whether he would put the motion to the House before the conference of Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) or after would also be cleared once the session is called.

Thus, all eyes are on Islamabad where history is in the making. Prime Minister Imran Khan can create history by completing his five-year term if the opposition fails to bring 172 MNAs on the day of voting. But, if he is voted out, it would also create history as never before any vote of no-confidence has ever been carried against the prime minister.

The writer is an analyst and columnist for Geo, The News and JangTwitter:@MazharAbbasGEO