SCO and Afghanistan

The changing circumstances in Afghanistan have been advancing a new stress test for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member-states. Seemingly, an effective multilateral response to emerging security threats from Afghanistan is the only optimal solution.

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his views on September 17, 2021, that the SCO should support a smooth transition in Afghanistan. He further maintained that SCO member-states can guide Afghanistan to develop an inclusive political structure and adhere to moderate internal and external policies. Afghanistan’s security and economic conditions are troubling its neighbourhood and persuading regional leaders to go for a cogent solution.

Besides China, other member-states of the SCO including Russia, Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are also expressing anxieties about the evolving humanitarian crisis and security situation in Afghanistan as their fears are generally due to terrorism. Some analysts are considering the SCO a key platform through which China can fill the security void left by the US.

During the presence of the US, Nato practised a military tactic by fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and supported a government that could not deliver effectively. However, after the departure of that government, the SCO chose a different approach to stabilise Afghanistan by calling neighbouring member-states of the SCO to encourage the Afghan governing body to cultivate a new comprehensive political arrangement. The deep-rooted social, economic, and political problems of Afghanistan are hampering the regional states’ efforts though.

In a meeting, held in February 2022, (during the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games) leaders of China and Pakistan reiterated the necessity to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Then, in a joint statement, they stressed the international aid to Afghanistan to ward off disaster.

Seemingly, China and Pakistan’s concerns are due to their geographical proximity with Afghanistan. China is worried about rebels from its western part (Xinjiang), as some are likely to have been in contact with the Taliban. Further, the current disorder in Afghanistan could trigger the migration of a huge number of Afghan refugees to neighbouring countries. Pakistan fears that Afghan soil could be used for cross-border attacks. Now the developing security situation in Afghanistan is becoming a point of central attention not only to Pakistan but other members of the SCO are equally apprehensive.

While looking at the history of the SCO, it appears that it has adopted a silent political and economic agenda over certain security matters. Notwithstanding its obscure position, the SCO proclaims to serve as a regional coordination forum for counterterrorism. For instance, the SCO's Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) oversees the cooperation of member-states against separatism, extremism, and terrorism but very little information is available which limits the ability of analysts to comprehend its real performance. In this background, some analysts can just speculate the SCO’s performance to be a regional security provider. Even the SCO’s acceptance of the Taliban regime has become an enigma.

Further, no proactive role is being played by the SCO to fix the issues in Afghanistan except some statements, yet the organisation is viewed as a useful platform because of the following reasons:

First, the Afghan Contact Group (ACG) was formed in 2005 under the SCO to cooperate with the country on the issues of mutual interests such as counterterrorism and the prevention of crimes. Later, Afghanistan was accepted as an observer state in 2012 and participated in most of the meetings.

Second, all the members of SCO countries have Muslim inhabitants, including China and Russia with a significant Muslim population in their countries. This factor gives weightage to the member-states of the SCO to persuade the local government of Afghanistan to improve the social, political, and economic situation by introducing modern trends. Indubitably, neighbouring Muslim countries can understand the problem of Afghanistan more deeply than any other state.

Third, the Regional Anti-terrorist structure (RATs) of the SCO has created a database of terrorist organisations dwelling in Afghanistan; this data could be helpful for governments and relevant institutions to combat terrorism.

Fourth, holding a combination of developed and developing states with the display of the Chinese preeminence in the Eurasian heartland, the SCO offers mechanisms of conflict resolution to its members, giving them the confidence to believe in the capabilities of the SCO. Beijing is demonstrating its supremacy by strengthening a regional structure through the SCO and turning it into a powerful force in Eurasia. The huge landmass of the SCO is building the confidence of regional actors to use this multilateral forum to deal with the threats emanating from Afghanistan.

Beijing’s diplomatic energy brought new members into the pool of the SCO; however, it is difficult to determine its success in the case of Afghanistan at this stage. Conspicuously, the SCO’s future relevance will be determined by its ability to effectively address the ongoing economic and security problems of neighbouring Afghanistan.

In a nutshell, Afghanistan needs external support to cope with the challenges that surfaced after the US withdrawal. Although the SCO could do nothing noticeable for Afghanistan so far, it is becoming a ray of hope for many as it calls on members to find a genuine solution through political, economic, and security cooperation. The SCO should start cooperation with Afghanistan not only for the prevention of terrorist activities but also to uplift the state's economic, cultural and humanitarian fields by initiating new economic programmes and strengthening human resources.

The writer is an associate professor at the Department of International Relations, National University of Modern Languages (NUML), Islamabad.