Why is Asif Zardari PM’s ‘prime target’?

Why did Prime Minister Imran Khan single out former President Asif Ali Zardari as his target “No 1” in case he survived the ‘vote of no-confidence,’ which is by far the toughest challenge for him since he took over in 2018? He did mention his other two rivals – Sharifs and Maulana Fazlur Rehman – but hit out at Asif Zardari in clear words.

In his hard-hitting speech against his three main opponents at the Governor’s House he singled out Zardari saying, ”my first target will be Asif Zardari who had been top of my hit list since long. He kills people, uses police and gangsters. Zardari your time is over”, the prime minister said.

There are reasons why Imran Khan picked Asif Zardari as his prime target. It is because of “art” of political maneuvering, which in fact had benefited Imran Khan prior to 2018 elections when through a “political coup” in Balochistan, AZ without any electoral strength turned the tables against the PMLN in Balochistan and a new party, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). The members of BAP voted for Imran Khan in the PM’s election after the 2018 general elections.

Asif Zardari also provided indirect support to PM Imran during the Senate elections when Sadiq Sanjrani of BAP was elected as Senate Chairman and PMLN candidate was defeated. It was AZ’s “political revenge” from former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for what he did during the PMLN government when some of his close friends were arrested including Dr Asim Hussain.

Later, Asif Zadrari also provided indirect support to PM Imran when a vote of no-confidence against Sanjrani was defeated despite the opposition’s clear-cut majority in the Senate.

Prime Minister Imran Khan now feels that Asif Zardari is the ‘mastermind’ of vote of no-confidence and he also believes that if someone has the capacity to turn the tables irrespective of how he could do it.

Imran was not all that wrong as last year Asif Zardari gave the prime minister the shock of his life time when he got his man, former Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, elected as “Senator” from Islamabad seat despite PTI’s majority in the National Assembly with the support of some of PTI MNAs, which Imran also knows.

Later, Asif Zardari through a double game, succeeded in getting Gilani as leader of the opposition in the Senate after Gilani lost election of Chairman Senate.

Now, many believe that Zardari is the man behind the move and causing a serious dent within PTI on the one hand and by making an unholy alliance with PMLQ on the other. His understanding with Chaudhrys of Gujrat since 2008 also made things difficult for the prime minister. The Chaudhrys have more trust in Asif Zardari than in PM.

In view of this tussle and vote of no-confidence, the PMQ and the other allies of PTI had advised the premier that he should first put his “own house in order rather than worry about them.”

If he loses the confidence of the “House”, there are chances of more division in the party and that may give him opportunity to revisit his post-government politics and plug the gap within. But, if he survives, there is every possibility that he would go hard against key opposition leaders about whom he has already hinted.

What led to the present crisis and will he be able to overcome it in the next two weeks and defeat the motion? In either case, political confrontation looks imminent in the coming weeks through possible “horse-trading” and muscle power.

He still has a few cards to play as the government of the day always has a slight advantage as we had witnessed in the past. What tactics will they use to stop its MNAs from going to the NA session? Legal opinion is divided on Article 63(A) which deals with disqualification.

Imran Khan never realised and looked at his party’s constant defeat in most of the by-elections and in cantonment boards elections and recently in the first phase of local bodies elections due to which he suspended the party organisations. Now, there are too many groups which have emerged since vote of no-confidence motion was moved.

However, his meeting with MQM (Pakistan) has given him some hope and all is not lost either in PMLQ or Jehangir Tareen camp either.

He was confident even before coming to “Bahadurabad”, the MQMP temporary headquarters, that they would not go with PPP because of its bitter past and that was one of the reasons that unlike his meeting with other allies or groups within the party there was no discussion about vote of no-confidence. There is every possibility that MQMP would go with the government unless something dramatic happens. The same signals are also coming from PMLQ that Chaudhrys of Gujrat in the end would side with Imran Khan till the next elections.

Although MQMP kept its options open and its delegation proceeded to Islamabad for a meeting with former president and PPP Co-Chairperson Asif Zardari. Neither side was very hopeful of the outcome. But one was surprised to see his “rough and tough” tone during his address to the party workers at the Governor’s House. In cricket, “Captain” always kept his cool in the last few overs when things were not going well for the team. Instead, he should have noticed that his visit coincided with four surprise votes which PPP got from PTI’s MPAs in the Senate election despite boycotts by PTI, GDA and MQMP. Sources suggested had PTI not boycotted the election there were chances of more defection within.

The PTI had conceded both NA and Senate seats to PPP just because of former MNA and Senator Faisal Vawda, who was disqualified by the Election Commission for not declaring his US nationality at the time of election.

PTI looked divided in Sindh recently when the party’s Sindh chief organiser and federal minister for ports and shipping Ali Zaidi announced new organisations. Four of its key players resigned within no time making things go from bad to worse.

The PTI’s crisis in Punjab, which has persisted since 2013, is far from over. Thus, his toughest challenge would be in dealing with two of his old and once trusted friends, Jehangir Khan Tareen and Aleem Khan. If Imran manages both he would not be facing much problems in handling PMLQ or Chaudhrys of Gujrat.

In the past, he saved them in 2013 when during the internal party elections the PTI’s election committee reported “rigging”. The two had denied, and in the end EC head Justice retired Wahjiuddin had to go.

He also sided with JKT even though he knew he had a role in defeating Shah Mehmood Qureshi on MPA’s seat in a possible bid to get the top slot of CM Punjab. JKT and Qureshi’s differences were quite known but Imran either ignored them or silently backed JKT.

Whether the PM survives vote of no-confidence or not, one thing is clear things are not looking good for him, his government and above all for the future political scenario.

There is nothing unconstitutional if the PM is voted out through a vote of confidence, but can it give political stability which is very much linked with economic stability. I still believe that the best way could have been free and fair elections in 2023 and peaceful transfer of power.

So, he has a reason to pick Asif Zardari as his prime target because it was because of him the prime minister has to run from one corner to another, and would surely come hard on him if he succeeds in defeating the vote of no-confidence.

It is time for both the government and the opposition parties to learn some lessons from the charred 75 years political history of Pakistan if they want to move forward.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO