Planned no-confidence resolution: Numerous positive, negative scenarios for contending parties

ISLAMABAD: Different scenarios could materialise in the run-up to the planned no-confidence resolution against Prime Minister Imran Khan. Like the late Benazir Bhutto, who fought off a no-trust move in her first tenure, Imran Khan is facing a similar threat to his rule for the first time since he assumed office in August 2018.

The danger is real. If the motion goes through the National Assembly, Imran Khan will turn out to be the first premier in Pakistan’s history to have been ousted by such a move. The hue and cry raised over the past couple of months will start moving towards its climax, possibly during this week. Surprises are not ruled out because a no-trust resolution is always a dicey affair for both sides. Given the razor-thin majority that Imran Khan enjoys in the National Assembly, unexpected developments become more likely.

Sensing the potential danger in the opposition parties’ move, the prime minister has embarked off his high horse and begun acting like a pragmatic politician – something clearly against his temperament -- by meeting leaders of his key allies who he had been conspicuously avoiding for more than three years of his rule.

The opposition, which has been down and dispirited since Imran Khan became the prime minister (largely because of the ‘same-page’ scenario) is looking confident for the first time. Its upbeat mood is not without good reason. Neither have Nawaz Sharif nor Asif Ali Zardari, Shehbaz Sharif nor Maulana Fazlur Rehman seemed as self-assured as they are now.

Conflicting scenarios haunt the contending parties even before D-Day – the open vote on the motion. Speaker Asad Qaiser has a central role to play in favour of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and against the opposition. In the years of his incumbency, he has proved to be a partisan presiding officer who has hardly ever accommodated the government’s rivals at crucial times and has always facilitated the government, specifically in passing hasty legislation amid the opposition’s protest. The opposition is wary about his role regarding the no-confidence motion.

Besides, there are a host of legal, constitutional and political developments that will take place prior to the vote, and the aftermath of the move against the prime minister. One, the onus of production of at least 172 legislators to carry the no-confidence motion is on the shoulders of the opposition parties. However, in case of a resolution to repose confidence in the prime minister, it is the responsibility of the government to have the requisite tally on the floor for its success. In a bid to frustrate the move, the government will not hesitate to try and block the appearance of the opposition members through official tactics.

It will not be a surprise if the flights coming to Islamabad from other cities are cancelled or delayed so that the opposition lawmakers fail to make it to the National Assembly session for the vote. Other roadblocks may also be resorted to.

Two, it will be a great challenge for the opposition to keep its own MPs at one place for a long period of time, protected from the grasp of the government. If the period before the vote lingers on for any reason, such a task will become exceedingly difficult. The slipping away of any number of members lowering the magic figure of 172 will naturally undermine the no-trust motion.

Three, the speaker’s role will be extremely crucial. He has the power under the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the National Assembly to summon a session requisitioned by the opposition after 14 days of the receipt of the request. But he can also convene it instantly so that the matter drags on to such an extent where the government finds sufficient time to use its power to bring back its defectors or wean away its rivals’ members.

Four, it is because of the opposition’s plan to proceed against the prime minister that the government is not calling a routine National Assembly session. However, even if the legislature would have been in session, the government would have prorogued it the moment the no-confidence resolution would have been received by the National Assembly secretary.

The moving of the resolution in the National Assembly was to come later. Once the motion is moved, the Lower House of Parliament can’t be prorogued without its final disposal under the rules.

Five, while the opposition is exuding confidence, the prime minister doesn’t appear to be in high spirits. He is doing these days what he had consciously evaded since he got the top office. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain had been seriously ill for a long time, but Imran Khan kept himself away from inquiring about his health by paying a personal visit to the Chaudhrys’ abode.

The Chaudhrys had been seriously upset by his attitude which they view as being in clash with values and traditions. For more than two years, the prime minister stubbornly refused to induct Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi’s son Moonis Elahi in the federal cabinet.

The PMLQ always insisted that it was promised two federal ministerial slots. Suddenly, the junior Chaudhry was taken in the cabinet recently, but Imran Khan now feels no hesitation in frequently interacting with him and the elder Chaudhrys.

Six, similar visits are now planned to placate the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Grand Democratic Alliance and Balochistan Awami Party, which will hardly be fruitful if these allies were asked to abandon him.

Seven, not long ago the premier wanted to put Jahangir Tareen behind bars and the cases registered by the Federal Investigation Agency against him were meant to jail him. Much before that, all communications between the two were cut off by Imran Khan. Time has changed so much that the prime minister has now phoned him to inquire about his health. The reason is simple and clear: Tareen’s hobnobbing with the opposition with the reported commitment that his supporters will back the no-confidence move. Imran Khan wants to win back the estranged leader.

Eight, the cluster of opposition politicians, which is sponsoring the motion, is a seasoned lot that specialises in wheeling-dealing and lobbying in view of its long experience of tackling such situations. They took a long time and held lengthy heated internal discussions to reach this conclusion.

Nine, in contrast, it is only the prime minister in the PTI who has taken upon his shoulders to defeat the no-trust resolution. The ruling party lacks trouble-shooters and none is available from its ranks that can even engage in serious and meaningful discussions with their estranged MPs to bring them back or rope in the opposition lawmakers.

Ten, if the opposition wins, it will add a rare feather to its cap for having ousted a sitting prime minister for the first time ever. It will be a huge, unheard of political development. Its triumph will strengthen the view of those who argued that that once the crutches were removed, neutrality set in, and MPs’ phones ceased ringing. If the opposition loses, it will suffer monumental damage and will have to wait till 2023 for the next general elections.

It is also likely to face more strong-arm methods from the mighty government. The internal contradictions and squabbles of the opposition are likely to come to the fore, creating unbridgeable fissures.

Eleven, if Imran Khan succeeds, he will become an exceptionally powerful prime minister. There will be no stopping him from doing whatever he wants uninhibited in every sphere without any fear. He is likely to intensify his “anti-corruption agenda” by further tightening the noose around the neck of the opposition stalwarts. But if he is defeated, he will earn the dubious distinction of having become the first premier to have been thrown out through a no-trust motion. When Imran Khan himself and his teammates tossed the warning that he will be more dangerous out of power, their statement may not be totally untrue. But this raises a question whether Imran Khan without the whole-hearted support of key stakeholders will be able to create the noise and results as he had done during the Nawaz Sharif government.

Twelve, some official quarters have offered an inane interpretation asserting that the Speaker may discard the ballots of the PTI defectors. Neither the Constitution nor the law provides for this to happen.

They offer a clear-cut procedure to deal with floor-crossers. The speaker can only send the reference against a defector to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) for the unseating of the deserter. It is the ECP that is armed with the power to oust such an MP.