Political activity

The political arena has been rather disquieting the past few days, with not much certainty on what comes the way of the regular Pakistani citizen. The attempts to topple the government, with the opposition certain that it is planning to move a no-confidence motion, seem to be gaining momentum. Per the latest, the deadlock between the PDM and the PPP over the issue of early elections also stands resolved, the PPP having apparently shifted to the PDM’s vision of early elections. The government seems somewhat perplexed over these developments, and perhaps a little perturbed, depending on how one reads the statements coming in from Fawad Chaudhry, Sheikh Rasheed, and other players in the game. However, at the same time, we have no way of saying whether the opposition has the numbers it requires to overthrow the prime minister, and what it would do if it did indeed succeed in this. There is also the as-yet-unresolved mystery of whether they are planning to bring the no-confidence move against the Speaker or the PM – although at the moment, the PM would be the more obvious choice.

The air of uncertainty hurts an already-unstable country. This has been the situation for far too long and we need a government in which people have confidence and which they believe is competent and able to manage the affairs of the state. So far, the PTI has failed to build this confidence and this may prove to be its chief undoing. There is talk of a bloc within the PTI which will vote against the prime minister in a no-confidence move. Members of the opposition claim they are in contact with this group. But in Pakistan’s politics, the truth is almost impossible to know or to understand.

The PML-Q could also become a chief player in the game that is unfolding stage by stage. There is still no definite word on precisely what the PML-Q intends to do. Moonis Elahi’s initial statement that the party stood by the PTI has been countered to some degree and there have been meetings with the Sharifs even if no definite agenda has been struck upon and no formula put into words, which can reach us all. The role of other allies of the government, including the MQM, will also be important. We are certain that seasoned opposition politicians, including Maulana and Shahbaz Sharif, as well as Asif Ali Zardari would have done their homework – and they have been saying that even without government allies they ‘have the numbers’ with the supposed defections in queue in the ruling party. Meanwhile, with all quiet in powerful quarters, the government seems to be working on its own to defend itself from the opposition’s impending onslaught.