Prime Minister Imran Khan offered mediation between China and the US to resolve all conflicts and differences during his visit to China. It is an excellent offer, as Pakistan is the only country which has experience to mediate between China and the US. Pakistan in late 1960s and early 1970s facilitated both countries to resolve their differences peacefully. It helped both countries to forge friendship and mutually beneficial economic partnership.
In this context, Prime Minister is right in offering mediation. However, Pakistan needs to be mindful that the dynamics have changed completely from the situation in 1960s and 1970s on multiple accounts.
First, China and USSR in late 1960s were against each other and developed severe differences on different issues. It resulted in hot conflicts at the borders and both were engaged in regular ambushes at the borders. Second, there were also sharp ideological differences between China and USSR.
The interpretation of communism and its ideology took different routes in China and USSR. The attack on Czechoslovakia in 1968 gave birth to new tension. Chairman Mao considered it adaptation of Brezhnev Doctrine and opposed it. The strongest opposition came from Prime Minister Zhou Enlai as he said “it is fascist politics, great power chauvinism, national egoism and social imperialism”. The US considered it as an opportunity to benefit from the rift between China and USSR. The US wanted to exploit opportunity to isolate USSR.
Third, there was no comparison between the economy of China and the US. China was also facing severe economic and development challenges at that time. So, the US did not feel any competition from China, and it was assumed that China will remain a junior partner. Fourth, target of the US was USSR. Fifth, Pakistan was a formidable economy and it was recognised as an emerging economy. The pace of economic growth put Pakistan among the top world economies. Sixth, Pakistan had trust of China and the US. On the one hand, Pakistan was member of SEATO and CENTO which were major alliances of US in the region. It did not have good relations with USSR. On the other, Pakistan was working closely with China and solved its issues peacefully, especially the border demarcation. Thus, economic strength and trust of US and China made Pakistan able to mediate between the two countries.
Now the dynamics have been changed. First, China is the target of US not Russia. The reasons for this change of target are obvious. China is moving fast on the ladder of development and it is expected that in next few years it will be a powerful country. The economic rise of China has threatened the economic hegemonic power of the US. The US is also facing immense competition from China as it is emerging a new global power in all the sectors. China is also emerging as a leading player in the field of technology.
Second, there are no differences between China and Russia at this point of time. China and Russia are working very closely and they have forged strategic and economic partnership. The leadership of both the countries is also very close to each other.
Third, Pakistan does not have good economy at this point of time and has been entangled by the international financial institutions like IMF, World Bank, Paris Club etc. in debt trap.
Fourth, China and Pakistan have forged iron brotherhood during the course of time. They have shown unconditional commitment to each other's core interests including Taiwan, Kashmir etc. They are moving hand in hand at the global level which US does not like at all. The US is continuously asking Pakistan to limit its cooperation with China. In recent times, Pakistan has faced immense pressure from the US to abandon China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and come out of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But, if Pakistan does not come out of CPEC, the US will not trust Pakistan and if Pakistan quits CPEC China will not trust Pakistan.
Fifth, Pakistan and Russia are also on the course to mend their differences. They are working together to find new avenues of cooperation by forgetting the past. In recent years, Pakistan and Russia have signed few agreements to cooperate in different fields including economy and energy. It is expected that after the visit of Prime minister Imran Khan, the relationship will be further strengthened.
Thus, in this context, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Pakistan to mediate between China and the US. Ideally, Pakistan should not get involved or offer such mediation. It can create more problems for Pakistan.
However, if the US changes its mind according to changing dynamics and show willingness to accommodate new dynamics, more specifically the rise of China on economic and technological fronts, Pakistan can offer mediation. For that purpose, the US will have to accept BRI an economic venture for strengthening the global system. These actions will pave the way for a peaceful and prosper world and for everyone.
In the conclusion, Pakistan must adopt a conscious policy by keeping in mind the real global dynamics and should avoid any emotions-based policy.
