Perils for opposition if no-trust succeeds

ISLAMABAD: If the proposed no-trust motion against the prime minister succeeds with the support of the PMLQ, it will prove to be more of a headache for those joining hands against Imran Khan than for the PTI.

The PMLN is keen for fresh elections as soon as possible, the PPP and the PMLQ are more interested in the completion of the present assemblies’ term whereas Maulana Fazlur Rehman harbours the desire of getting his son to the office of the prime minister -- no matter how short the stint is.

The Imran Khan government has never been comfortable with the numbers in the National Assembly but no matter who among the opposition parties becomes the prime minister, it would be a shaky coalition government comprising partners whose political interests strongly clash with each other.

The PMLQ finds in the wheeling and dealing a golden opportunity to get the office of Chief Minister Punjab for Pervez Elahi. Elahi wants to rule Punjab for the remaining term of one-and-a-half years with the hope of reviving his party.

This is, however, unacceptable to the PMLN, which does not want to go for a huge political compromise by surrendering its stronghold Punjab to its political adversary. The Sharifs know that handing over Punjab to Pervez Elahi would mean seriously denting their own politics. Empowering the Q-League at the cost of weakening the PMLN is not a deal worth considering for the Sharifs.

The PPP’s thinking is also closer to the PMLQ than the PMLN because weakening the Sharifs in Punjab would mean strengthening the PPP. Asif Ali Zardari is also inclined for the continuation of the present assemblies as the PPP has its stakes in Sindh. For the PPP, removing Imran Khan and going for fresh elections is like presenting the next government to the Sharifs on a platter.

The PPP, in the ongoing consultations process, has suggested the name of Shehbaz Sharif as Imran Khan’s replacement for the next one-and-a-half year. However, according to PMLN leaders, like Punjab it would not be a doable proposition even at the Centre because of the diversions and conflicts within the oppositions’ political interests.

The PMLN is insisting on fresh polls as soon as the no-trust move against Prime Minister Imran Khan succeeds. The N-leaguers know that this is the only political option that suits their politics. Otherwise, a continuation of the Imran Khan government will serve the PMLN’s interest more than anyone else’s. The only really serious concern for the PMLN in case Imran Khan continues, is who would the PM appoint as the army chief.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman is also keen on early elections, but he also wants his MNA son --Asad Mehmood --to be considered for the slot of PM in case IK is removed. Even if the post-Imran Khan prime minister continues for just a few weeks, Maulana desires to see his son as PM. In the PMLN, there are many candidates for the prime ministership. Shehbaz Sharif, however, wants to become PM only after fresh elections, knowing well that the present assembly could not produce any strong PM from the opposition benches.

The no-trust motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan depends upon the post no-trust understanding reached between the opposition parties. But in case the opposition succeeds in the no-trust move and the present assemblies continue and complete their term, the PTI and Imran Khan will benefit the most. The longer Imran Khan sits in the opposition, the more likely it is that he will revive his popularity before the next polls.