No-trust politics

All is not well in the government and opposition both camps. Prime Minister Imran Khan, leading a fragile coalition, has a slight edge over completely disjointed opposition. He may make complete his full term in office if he overcomes internal and external challenges.

Though a recent surprise meeting of the top leaders of PPP and PMLN helped defuse the tension, the two sides are still not ready to fully trust each other, and this what always benefited Imran Khan and his government. So, would they be able to go for a ‘vote of no confidence’ against the PM under these circumstances?

The present opposition has been a blessing in disguise for Imran Khan for they lack certain basics needed to challenge their determined opponent — Imran Khan.

While the government has only a year and a half to complete its term, any futile scramble by the opposition would turn out to be counterproductive since it has already failed thrice in the Senate despite having a clear majority.

If one like PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto believes that even if ‘vote of no confidence’ fails, it would weaken the government or Prime Minister, he is badly mistaken. There is no comparison between the political situation of 2022 and 1989.

In 1989, the Presidency and the establishment had backed the no-confidence vote, and yet former prime minister Benazir Bhutto had defeated it. However, the president then had the authority under Article 58-2(b) to dissolve the assembly and dismiss the government. And he sacked her government on On August 1990.

The late Benazir erred when she accepted a compromise pushed by the then powerful lobby, and yet she was not accepted. Had opposition been united since the 2018 elections, it would have been nearly impossible for the PTI government to stay put as neither the ruling coalition-backed chairman of Senate would have been elected, nor could he have survived the no-confidence vote. It would have been even difficult for the “umpire” to take sides.

When Yusuf Raza Gillani secured his senate election, and Imran Khan was angry with his own party’s legislators, the PPP Chairman believed the no-confidence move could oust Imran Khan.

Some PMLN and PPP leaders believe that Asif Zardari has worked on ‘numbers’, and if PMLN and other coalition parties get serious, he could pose a serious threat to Imran Khan and his government. However, some PMLN leaders are sceptical about number games, and believe opposition’s defeat here could further weaken them rather than the government.

The PMLN also has an internal conflict and it appears that former Prime Minister Shahid Khakan Abbasi is trying to block the way for PPP in the opposition camp, either in the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) or in case of any fresh Charter of Democracy.

It was Abbasi who took the hard position against PPP after Gilani got himself elected as leader of the opposition with the silent support of the independent group led by Dilawar Khan. Some others believe he went too far, and since then the PDM failed to pose a single threat to the government.

His critics believe he is playing the role of a 'spoiler' but is doing it on his own or with the silent support of someone within.

All is not well in the PM camp either where Imran Khan is facing multiple challenges — within the party as well as with the coalition partners who always ‘bargain’ whenever opposition parties gear up for any move against the government.

This time something unusual happened when all the three coalition partners —BAP, MQM (Pakistan) and PMLQ —hinted at taking independent decisions if grievances were not addressed. Only recently, their issues were addressed before all-important legislation in the NA and Senate on Money Bill and State Bank of Pakistan.

The intra- PTI issue also did not go well. Imran Khan dissolved all party organizations in the country after defeat in the first phase of the local bodies elections in KP. Some party leaders were surprised as to why party organizations in the country were dissolved while the party faced defeat in KP alone. The party also tasted back-to-back defeat in Punjab by-elections.

Organizationally PTI always faced this problem. As a result, the culture of elections within the party almost diminished after 2013, and developed way of other parties of direct nomination.

If Imran Khan manages to settle his political and more importantly ‘non-political’ issues, he could create history by becoming the first prime minister in 75 years to complete his term in office in 2023 and lead the party in race for the second term.

(The writer is an analyst and columnist for GEO, The News and Jang. Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO)