Will Nawaz Sharif return in 2022?

Is former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif coming back? Is he coming with an understanding or is being sent back and so on? This is a matter of debate and discussion in the media and the private gathering, political or non-political. The important and key question is will he return in 2022 and if so when.

No date has been given nor any deadline but it’s a matter of concern for both ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Nawaz Sharif’s own party, Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN).

Both the parties for their own reasons want to see him in Pakistan in the coming year. The PTI wants to see a convicted and disqualified former PM in jail, while the PMLN desires he should lead the party to victory in the next general elections. But, what NS actually wants and is thinking about his return and in what circumstance, only he and his children know. Perhaps, not even the brother but I am not sure about it.

No date has been announced yet and ‘London’ is silent about it. So, it could be a possible psychological warfare between the two main political parties who are gearing up for the next general elections.

All this has made the Year-2022 an interesting year and the first quarter will set the stage for the new political battle and we may see intense ‘media war’ as well, glimpses of which have already been witnessed. But, one could forecast intense ‘propaganda’ campaign in the social media in weeks and months to come.

Country is already in an ‘election mood’ perhaps too early thanks to the first phase of local bodies elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and its results which surprised the ruling party when another opposition party and an alley of PMLN, Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI, swept the phase with victory in 17 districts and forced PM to disband its organisational structure.

The next local bodies elections are scheduled in Punjab, a stronghold of PMLN, and they are confident they will give the second surprise to PTI. The optimism is on the basis of back-to-back election victories in the by-elections in Punjab. Therefore, they have created hype for the possible return of their leader, Nawaz Sharif.

The ruling PTI, on the other hand, tried to counter the attack by claiming that Nawaz Sharif is not coming back on his own but would be brought back by the government, which has ‘negotiated’ with British authorities in this regard. They also insisted that once he was brought back he would be put in jail.

But, at the same time government ‘spokesmen’ also claimed that they are considering action against his (Nawaz) brother Shehbaz Sharif, who had given assurance that he would return. But, for that they have to move the same bench of the Lahore High Court, which granted permission to Nawaz to travel abroad for ‘medical treatment’ on the advice of government’s nominated ‘medical board.’

The best news for the PTI could come from London itself if the British authorities themselves ask Nawaz Sharif to go back. But, legal experts are divided on early disposal of his case. Extradition is apparently a remote possibility.

Whether he is coming or not, and when he is coming has become a matter of discussion in the media and a ‘tug-of-war’ between PMLN and PTI, and it may continue in addition to controversial ‘mini-budget’, which would be quite a challenge for the ruling party as it will hurt the common man if passed. There is no consensus even within the ruling party and its allies on the issue as they know that its impact could affect them in the forthcoming local bodies elections in Punjab and in the second phase in KP. Will the PM be able to convince them and his party on the ‘mini-budget’ to apparently meet the conditions of the IMF before January 12, next year.

I could be wrong but I still have serious doubts about his return as long as Imran Khan is the prime minister. There is no date or deadline given so far about his possible return as he has to stand the final trial—appeal against his conviction. He has also been disqualified for life and so his beloved daughter Maryam Nawaz.

Some of PMLN leaders not only expressed optimism but also confidence that he is coming before March, next year. But, all these claims are only on paper in the form of statements and TV beeper from central leaders like former NA Speaker Ayaz Sadiq to Javed Latif to Rana Sanaullah while others like former PM Shahid Khakan Abbasi, Khawaja Asif and Khawaja Saad Rafiq are more guarded in their views. Even Maryam Nawaz has not given any firm statement on the issue, indicating that it’s more of creating hype than anything on the ground.

What are the possible options for PMLN and PTI and consequences for both? There are no easy answers but two hard realities: One, Nawaz Sharif is a convict as well as disqualified and second, he is still a popular leader and has a huge following. His party would not have been winning by-polls one after another had his popular graph gone down. So, even if the government puts him behind the bar it would not solve the problem for the government and PM Imran Khan. Thus, the only silver line for them is to await early disposal of his appeal and then convince people to accept this reality. Things for the PTI and PM Imran Khan have become far more difficult because of weak Chief Minister. Had there been an aggressive CM, particularly in Punjab, things would have been better for the PTI.

People’s perception is far more different from that of government, and in the past we had seen this in the case of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, as despite been convicted in a murder case and executed, Bhutto’s popularity remained unmatched even after his death. Some people believe that people’s verdict often is different from the court's verdict when it comes to the cases of popular leaders. There are still lots of ‘ifs and buts’ even on the popularity of MQM founder Altaf Hussain.

Politicians and rulers get popular or unpopular on the basis of their performance and political parties fade out or are voted out by the people in a process.

It is also not easy for the PMLN either to go into elections without the presence of its leader as his alternate Shehbaz Sharif, despite all his ability as a good administrator, seriously lacks the art of political and election campaign. He is too weak a speaker to attract the crowd. He has not the kind of charisma Maryam has whether you agree with her politics or not.

Secondly, Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz appeals are crucial for PMLN too. In this context, the forthcoming proceedings in the case of former Judge Rana Shamin could prove ‘make-and-break’ for Nawaz Sharif though they have not made much-discussed ‘affidavit’ part of the appeal, but are certainly interested to see the outcome of the proceedings.

Rejection of appeal of the two means end of electoral politics for both and in that case Nawaz Sharif will have to spend a few years in prison at least during Imran Khan’s rule. He then has to take the most important decision about his political and family legacy.

So, the most important and crucial question is when Nawaz Sharif will return. He will not come without looking into some of the above mentioned possible consequences. Without ‘understanding’ and some ‘assurance’ he will never return and that is the key question for both Nawaz Sharif as well as Imran Khan.

When Nawaz Sharif last returned along with his daughter during the PTI government, he was put behind the bar. But, his presence in prison became political problem for the government. He was getting too much attention. Therefore, many believe that when he developed some ‘health’ problem government did not waste much time and its nominated medical board allowed him to travel abroad subject to the permission of the LHC, which was given.

Whether Nawaz Sharif returns in 2022 or not, the legal and political battle between the PTI and the PMLN will not only continue but could get tense in the coming months and throughout the year.

The writer is a columnist and analyst at Geo, The News and Jang

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