Pakistan will turn 100 in 2047. That’s 25 years down the road. According to a World Bank report titled ‘Pakistan@100:Shaping the Future’, “Pakistan can become a $2 trillion dollar economy….when Pakistan is 100 years old” adding that a “$2 trillion economy means an upper middle-income country where per capita income will be $5,702….” Here are the seven prerequisites: improve governance; transform the economy; halve the population growth rate; invest in human capital, liberalize trade; improve health facilities and water management.
Export potential: Pakistan’s exports hover around $30 billion a year, roughly 10 percent of GDP. The World Bank in its report titled ‘Pakistan Development Update’ states: “Given Pakistan’s observable characteristics in terms of economic size, level of development, remoteness, and factor endowments, it is estimated that Pakistan’s potential annual exports are at $88.1 billion….” The report further states that the “opportunity cost of Pakistan’s missing exports is estimated at 893,000 jobs and $1.74 billion in foregone taxes. Of these, 152,000 jobs could be created in the agriculture export sector, and 741,000 jobs could be created in the manufacturing export sector.”
Here are seven prescriptions to reach the $88.1 billion potential: reduce anti-export bias in the trade policy; rationalise the high tariff regime; create a competitive market within; establish a market intelligence network for exporters; refocus export refinance schemes; sign up transit agreements and improve customs facilitation.
Oil & Gas potential: According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Pakistan may have over 9 billion barrels of petroleum oil…” It will take us 45 years to finish that. According to the EIA, “Pakistan holds sizable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).” It will take us 58 years to finish that.
Solar potential: Pakistan has a potential of “2.9 million MW.” This is what we can do with it: We can electrify some 40,000 villages which are far from the national grid. We can run 260,000 water pumps and 850,000 diesel pumps. We can light 500,000 street lights. According to a World Bank study, “utilising just 0.071 percent of the country’s area for solar PV would meet Pakistan’s current electricity demand.” Currently, we have 530 MW solar power out of our 2.9 million MW solar potential.
Wind potential: Pakistan’s “total estimated gross wind power potential installable capacity is around 346,000 MW.” Currently, we have 1,248 MW wind power out of our 346,000 MW wind power potential.
Agriculture potential: Wheat production 27 million tons; potential 80 million tons. Cotton production 10 million bales; potential 23 million bales. Rice production 7.4 million tons; potential 13 million tons.
Our potential: Our GDP $300 billion; potential in 25 years $2 trillion. Our exports $30 billion; potential $88.1 billion. Our solar power provides us 530 MW; potential 2.9 million MW. Our wind power provides us 1,248 MW; potential 346,000 MW.
System failure: Our ‘system’ isn't delivering. Our ‘system’ has produced three things: extractionary institutions, exclusionary politics and serious political instability. Our current ‘model of governance’ isn't delivering. Our ‘political model’ is without ‘national interest’. We need ‘politics of national interest’.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh
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