Different directions

For some time, it has been clear that there are two narratives running concurrently through the PML-N. On the one side is the no-holds-barred line of Mian Nawaz Sharif spoken out loud mainly by his daughter Maryam. While Maryam Nawaz has been speaking about contentious subjects and has also given a stance on the extension given to the army chief, there was an immediate rejoinder to her stance by Hamza Shahbaz Sharif — the other side of the party — stating that hers was not the PML-N’s position. Other differences too have continued to emerge over the past weeks, despite Shahbaz Sharif’s occasional assertion that the brothers are united and will not be parting ways.

Shahbaz Sharif, who had till now adopted a relatively quiet attitude, seems to have quite obviously gained confidence after the PML-N’s strong showing in the cantonment elections in Punjab and gains made in other provinces. The result is that Shahbaz is now speaking out more strongly, talking of preparing for the 2023 election, and apparently stepping outside the PDM position that the current government should be overthrown. This brings about a whole different tone to politics in the country and to the manner in which it is just played out. Till now we have not seen the PML-N divided, at least to any serious degree. While some people may have joined and then left the party, this has not created any major ripples within it. However, a dispute between the Sharif brothers themselves will obviously create not only ripples, but major waves. For the moment Shahbaz, as the Sharif brother who is in the country, and in control of regular meetings and other decision-making, seems to have the upper hand. But there are many who do feel that the PML-N will not that easily shake off the ‘N’ part, given Nawaz Sharif’s popularity among the party’s constituents.

Shahbaz has also gained perceived strength from the decision by a UK court that ordered the unfreezing of the bank accounts of Shahbaz Sharif and his son Suleman Shahbaz after the country’s National Crime Agency (NCA) did not find evidence of any wrongdoing related to these accounts. The NCA decision has significance and strengthens the Shahbaz Sharif camp. It is quite obvious that Shahbaz and his niece do not see eye to eye and while this weakens the Sharif family and its hold on the PML-N, it is to be seen how successfully Shahbaz Sharif can lead the PML-N into the next election.