Islamabad nowhere near achieving herd immunity: Dr. Orooj

Islamabad : The variants of COVID-19 virus are a key stumbling block in the way of herd immunity—both in the context of Islamabad as well as other cities of Pakistan, the Director General of Health Services Dr. Hasan Orooj pointed out on Friday.

Substantiating his argument, Dr. Orooj pointed out that on the one hand, it has been established that the Indian, UK, and Brazilian variants are way more lethal than the initial ones, while on the other, there is a huge question mark regarding the efficacy of existing vaccines against these variants. As such, herd immunity is far from reality in the absence of a vaccine which effectively deals with all COVID-19 variants.

“According to the World Health Organization, herd immunity can only be considered if 75 to 85% of the population is immune to a disease; however, in the case of COVID-19, multiple factors are playing a role to undermine any such chances. In addition to emerging variants of Coronavirus, these include the casual behaviour and vaccination status of the people, migrating and travelling populations, and assessment of the general public vis-à-vis the number of tests performed,” he stated.

Moreover, in any urban city, and particularly in Islamabad, 800,000 to 1,000,000 people commute to the capital daily from Rawalpindi, KPK, Punjab, Murree, and AJK, among other cities. “This influx has two dimensions; one, people are continuously bringing viruses to Islamabad, thus posing a threat to local inhabitants; and secondly, a substantial number of people living outside Islamabad seek vaccination services from Adult Vaccination Centers located in the capital. As such, data reflecting Islamabad’s total vaccinated population includes people who are living elsewhere but getting vaccinated in this city. These data give a false impression of the city moving towards herd immunity,” Dr. Orooj explained, adding that smart lockdowns in various sectors of Islamabad are clear evidence of the disease not being under control.

According to Dr. Orooj, “Casual public behaviour is a ticking bomb.” Be they marketplaces, mosques, or offices, the observance of SOPs for protection against the virus does not exceed 10 to 15%,” he flagged. While there has been a progressive increase in vaccination status, Dr. Orooj said, many serious flaws still exist. For instance, some people are able to obtain certificates without getting vaccinated. There are others who get the first dose but do not turn up for the second. And yet another group, though small, tricks the system by getting themselves registered and then disappearing from the site without being vaccinated. This manipulative group also tries to obtain a certificate without being vaccinated. “Under these circumstances, how can we be sure that the vaccination figures in hand truly reflect ground realities,” Dr. Orooj asked.

The DG Health said, herd immunity can, however, be achieved through 100% adherence to SOPs such as use of masks, ventilated rooms, avoidance of unnecessary gatherings, social distancing, 90 to 95% vaccination coverage, and ensuring that people entering Islamabad—who constitute about one-third of the city’s local population—are vaccinated and not liable to spreading infection.

“There is not a magic threshold that we need to cross to achieve herd immunity for a novel virus. All we have to do is to decide between injection or infection,” Dr. Orooj concluded.