Snap polls: Are opposition parties prepared for grand electoral clash?

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), billed as the most formidable opposition party among the anti-government forces, is not at all prepared for snap elections if they are called out of the blue by Prime Minister Imran Khan.

For quite some time, the PMLN has been hostage to two incompatible and irreconcilable ‘narratives’—one calling for conciliation and the other for resistance. This stark division is harming the party severely, leaving its rank and file confused and directionless. However, this divergence is not a new phenomenon; it has engulfed it in the past as well on more than one occasion. But previously, the divide was not allowed to stretch beyond a certain limit.

When in power, the two narratives had very different implications for the PMLN. But when in opposition and overwhelmed by tough challenges and mighty antagonists, the consequences are much more dangerous and damaging for the party.

When the PMLN is in serious ideological disarray, it is in no position to expect electoral gains matching the popular appeal it possesses and takes pride in. As time passes and general elections on the allotted time or before that inch closer, the mess has the potential to damage the party beyond repair. The commotion has already taken its toll on its reputation of being a unified force.

Obviously, the PMLN’s disarray suits its archrival, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which now feels confident that its principal opponent, particularly in Punjab, has been overwhelmed by its internal strife and has made the next elections easier for it.

Undeniably, if this condition prevails for six months before the new parliamentary polls, the PMLN is going to be in huge trouble. There is a clear realisation among several senior party leaders about the damage the conflicting narratives has inflicted which will further hurt the party, leaving its workers disoriented.

Like before, the reconciliation narrative is being pursued and projected by PMLN President Shehbaz Sharif, who is supported by some senior party colleagues. The other line is being propagated by deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Many unnerved party leaders are calling for marrying the two viewpoints into a consensus line of action so that the PMLN wings come out with an agreement. But they refrain from telling the two sets of leaders point blank to mend fences and control the damage.

It is obvious that Punjab is going to be the real battleground in the next elections. In several previous elections and even in the 2018 parliamentary polls, the PMLN had emerged as the largest party in the province bagging federal and provincial seats and popular votes. The majority province has long been considered the PMLN’s bastion of power. Apparently, the PMLN has a good opportunity to cash in on the disgruntlement with the governance of Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, whose government is being run from Islamabad in every field through macro- and micro-management of affairs including even transfers and postings of bureaucrats. But the PMLN can gain from this situation only when it becomes a united force.

However, a fact that may be comforting for its top party leadership is that while the fight over narratives is at its peak, there have been no desertions from within the PMLN. But it cannot be ignored that the ‘electables’ or more appropriately weathercocks always weigh their options on the eve of elections, which are still a long way away. What has been drowned out in the public clash of narratives is that the PMLN has failed to give the impression that it is going to form the next government. Such an impression matters a lot, and sufficient evidence is available from Pakistan’s chequered parliamentary history.

As far as the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is concerned, it may not be taken by surprise by any announcement of early polls. Bilawal is always on the move, touring different regions of Pakistan to galvanise his party. He is seemingly engrossed in preparations for the grand electoral contest. He is trying to focus on Punjab where the PPP is yet to make gains that would pull it out of its dismal performance in the 2018 polls. Unless it makes significant inroads in Punjab, it is going to find itself in the lurch once again.

The PPP is struggling to lure electables from any political party but is failing so far. Now, it is attempting to rope in the PTI’s federal and provincial legislators, who had stood with disgruntled Jahangir Tareen. However, after the cases instituted by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) against Tareen with the active involvement of the central authorities have been put on the backburner, his group’s anti-government activities have vanished. Bilawal is also concentrating on south Punjab to get some electables from the are to his side. Unlike the PMLN, he is trying to give the impression that his party is coming in power in the next polls as he has developed a rapport with the right quarters. Despite this, the electables are still not attracted to the PPP. Neither the PMLN nor the PTI treat the PPP as an electoral force to fear in the Punjab.

In Sindh particularly in its rural areas, the PPP is well-prepared for snap elections as it is not confronted with any daunting political force. In Balochistan, it hopes to win a few seats after taking Sardar Sanaullah Zehri and Lt-Gen (retd) Qadir Baloch in its fold. It is also counting on the support of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP).

Another political force – the Jami at-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) - which is the second most important constituent of the multi-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), has also being doing its homework for fresh elections. It has a fixed religious following in various areas of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) that invariably votes for its nominees.