Interesting times

Turns out that the ancient Chinese curse, ‘may you live in interesting times’, is neither ancient nor Chinese. In all likelihood it is less than a century old and, ironically, a phrase of American origin wanting to pass itself off as Oriental to sound exotic. It is, nonetheless, a profound thought and all of Pakistan’s existence bears testimony that it is, in fact, a curse.
How one wishes that Pakistan lived in less interesting times. Or, at the very least, we restrained our penchant to makes things even more interesting than they already are. The thought crosses one’s mind every time our cricket team turns an achievable target into an uphill task. ‘Mercurial’ should never be viewed as a compliment; but in sports it can at least be seen as cute. In politics, however, the stakes can be higher and the repercussions existential.
Our cricketing talent of turning good news into bad and making every bad situation worse sometimes seems like a reflection of a more sinister national pathology of dissonance. Consider the reaction to the death of Hakeemullah Mehsud – Pakistan’s declared public enemy #1, slayer of Pakistani soldiers, killer of Pakistani citizens, destroyer of Pakistani cities, denier of Pakistan state and sovereignty – as merely the latest amongst many exhibits of the confusion that is the bane of our polity. Once again, we not only turned an important development into more interesting than necessary, but into the absolutely absurd.
One wishes for some respite from these interesting times in Pakistan because the collective nerves of any society can survive on edge for only that long. But also because if we were to get a breather – a moment to look around us – we would discover to our astonishment what interesting times we exist in internationally. Times that are turbulent but which ooze with opportunity. Opportunity that we are missing because we are so weighed down by our own internal pangs of frightening, inopportune interestingness.
Even as we make history of the most sordid kind ourselves, the fact is that we are sitting out on the history that is happening around us. It is only natural that our attention be directed inwards in these grave times. But it is also sad. Sadder still that our internal affairs have become so impregnated by foreign concerns that our foreign affairs now seem totally enveloped by internal concerns. Meanwhile, the world moves on.
The world moves on most dramatically in our own neighbourhood; and not without major consequences for Pakistan. The slow to come, but sudden and swift movement in US-Iran nuclear talks caught everyone by surprise. This very icy and long-frozen relationship is clearly thawing and both Iran and the US seem cautiously determined to change the status quo (despite vocal reservations from Israel). A real deal has not yet materialised, but real movement is evident. Not evident at all are any meaningful signs of a Pakistan involvement, position, or even interest in this development.
A different Pakistan at a different time may have aspired to play a broker role in such a dialogue, the way it had facilitated contact between the US and China in that historic thawing. Today, Pakistan’s relations with both the US and Iran are so fractured that neither would probably trust Pakistan to any role, let alone seek it. One would, however, have expected Pakistan to have an articulated position that not only thought through its future relations with these two important international partners but also the substance of the new international nuclear balance that might take shape. At the very least we should be preparing for how any possible rapprochement between the US and Iran could impact potential gas pipelines flowing from Iran into Pakistan and beyond.
The geopolitical shift that is unravelling is, in fact, much broader. The so-called Arab spring may not have bloomed new gardens, but it continues to trigger surprises. Most striking is the emerging tension in relations between USA and Saudi Arabia. This has unravelled gradually since the Arab spring, especially in the context of recent developments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, but probably has even more to do with the unlocking of new shale oil reserves in the US through fracking technology – for example, and not inconsequentially, last month was the first time in nearly two decades that the US produced more crude oil than it imported. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Egypt’s military suddenly warmed up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has recently toppled US President Barack Obama as the supposed ‘Most Powerful Person’ on a Forbes list. All in all, change is afoot.
Lying squarely in the Middle East’s backyard, Pakistan has much riding on the region – politically, economically, socially. To be a bystander is not enough. It is certainly not good foreign policy. Pakistan may not have the ability or the opportunity to influence the change that is happening in the Middle East (although, as a UN Security Council member for at least another month, we could have had more influence than we did), but we do have a responsibility to be prepared for any change that may come, no matter how small. One hopes there is relevant strategic planning within our foreign policy establishment. However, now without a full-time foreign minister for 247 consecutive days, with an over-stretched prime minister holding tight to the foreign affairs portfolio, and with an internal political agenda overwhelming foreign policy priorities, one is less than sanguine on such a possibility.
Speaking of change, any thought of global climate change is far from Pakistan’s mind. It should not be. Not only because the global negotiations on the subject are happening right now in Warsaw but much more so because Pakistan’s deep vulnerability to climate change is now well-established as a clear threat to its future. The two issues that climate change policy is most directly related to are energy and water. The former is Pakistan’s single largest policy challenge today. The latter will be the single largest policy challenge tomorrow.
Over the years, Pakistan has demonstrated international intellectual leadership on this issue, as on other development-related issues. Yet, this leadership is being eroded simply because our foreign policy agenda is so swamped by domestic concerns. This is a shame because our diplomats are well-versed in this issue; there is international respect for Pakistan’s expertise and diplomatic standing, especially amongst developing countries; and maybe most of all because this is one of the issues where Pakistan could credibly demonstrate international leadership. In a world where we are now seen as leading on nearly all things bad, what a wonderful thing it would be if we were seen leading on something good.
More than all that, one would like to believe that looking at the news and pictures coming from the Philippines in the wake of Typhoon Haiyan, Pakistan would think of climate change; of the havoc wrought by our own terrible floods in 2010; but most of all of our responsibility, our humanity, to reach out to others in need as others had reached out to us. One would like to believe that but one knows we have much more on our minds right now. Amongst other things, we are deeply invested in deciding amongst ourselves who dies a shaheed and who not. As if our passionate protestations will change the fate of the departed, we continue to insult the already dead even as we ignore the ones dying today.
One is reminded of the story of how, when Baghdad was besieged by Hulagu (Halaku) Khan in 1258 AD, intellectuals in the city were busy debating whether eating crow was halal or not. I am not sure if the story is true and certainly the point of the story is not to belittle the value of such debate – whether on determining what is halal or who is a shaheed. The point is merely to remind ourselves that even when times are tough – especially when times are tough – it is wise to keep an eye on what is happening outside our walls as much as on what is happening within them.
The writer has taught international relations and diplomacy at Boston University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and was the vice chancellor of LUMS.
Twitter: @adilnajam