Number game

Accurate data form the basis for any planning in a modern state and government system. Be it resource allocations according to population for meeting development goals, public sector’s targeting of remote or vulnerable groups through affirmative action or the setting of formulae for political representation at different tiers of government, that in effect sanctions any of the decisions mentioned above, all are based on facts and figures.
It is said that in politics perception is more important than reality. But numbers are supposed to form the basis for any decisions that collectively affect people’s lives. Also, the numbers help us understand the reason and the extent of the prevalent gulf between perception and reality at a certain point in time. Because sometimes the perceptions are very close to reality as well but they only get confirmed when there is empirical evidence.
Pakistan is about to go through a series of data collection and verification exercises at the national level which will have an impact on our economy and polity sooner than we actually realise. The ECP has begun the preparation, revision and cleaning of electoral rolls across the country. This would also mean verification of votes according to the civil registry maintained by Nadra.
While the issue of around 37 million unverified voters out of an estimated 80 million is likely to be put to rest after this exercise, many new voters will get registered in new constituencies where they turned 18 or now permanently live. This is to be followed by a population census to be conducted by Pakistan Census Organisation. Sindh and Balochistan witnessed problems in the holding of the housing census just recently but the population census will have an impact not just on resource allocations across the country but on the psyche of people who like to think that they are in a majority in a certain area. Subsequently, a delimitation of constituencies for the national and provincial assemblies as

required by the law will take place.
Now what does all this mean for Karachi? Here, what I say is what I perceive, an educated guess but still a non-scientific estimation. However, the issue is that it seems there are other people like me who think and perceive as much. Besides, fellow commentators, they are part of the political parties and some of them fear the change in numbers so much that they want a situation where new numbers are not gathered.
Rational thinkers championing certain interests, pragmatic citizens themselves who get affected by the change and the capable political forces who claim to represent these citizens, revise their facts and review their strategy when numbers change. They would rather not stick to their old facts and preconceived notions. That acumen is missing in Karachi.
The current estimate is that Karachi will see a massive increase in population since the last census mostly due to in-migration. Circumstances are such that many originally belonging to other parts of Pakistan now view themselves as permanent residents meaning they would vote in Karachi.
This was not the case in previous elections otherwise things would have been different even then. Besides, the ANP and the PPP have started following the same political model as the MQM. This means delimitation of constituencies will become a major issue and after that, the next elections will be violent if safeguards are not put in place.
The struggle to replace sole proprietorship with multiple franchises on the political high street is having such horrific fallout on the poor citizens of Karachi.

The writer is an Islamabad-based poet, author and public policy adviser. Email: harris. khalique@gmail.com