Afghanistan: what next?

In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘political solution’ to the Afghan quagmire is low. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘diplomatic solution’ to the Afghan impasse is even lower. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘power-sharing formula’ is also low. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘military solution’ is high.

America – and India – have both been defeated in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been on a winning streak – and victory has its own dynamics. The probability of a ‘civil war’ is high unless the Afghan government falls in the near future. And, a long drawn-out civil war is not in anyone’s interest, especially Pakistan’s. America’s real concern is transnational terrorism originating in Afghanistan – and as long as that does not happen America could care less.

As Nato withdraws, Pakistan’s stakes in Afghanistan will go up. Is the 180,000 Afghan National Army disintegrating? Looks like it is. Al-Qaeda has been degraded – not defeated. ISIS is present in Nangarhar. In the not too distant future, the US and its European allies will become more dependent on Pak Army. The Taliban are stronger now than at any time in the past two decades. Yes, there exists a nexus between the Afghan Taliban and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Naturally, the TTP must be feeling emboldened.

A civil war in Afghanistan would mean three things: economic refugees into Pakistan; an increase in militant activities in Pakistan; and an economic burden on the state of Pakistan. Will we have to fight ‘War on Terror II’? Remember Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad, Rah-e-Haq, Zalzala, Black Thunderstorm and Rah-e–Shahadat? We have already started taking casualties and militant activity in border areas has already increased manifold.

Yes, we have managed to build a 13 feet high border barrier (along with a 13 feet deep and a 16 feet wide trench). Apparently, 85 percent work has been completed along the 2,640 kilometre long international border. Did the Great Wall of China stop Genghis Khan? Did the Wall of Babylon stop Cyrus’ soldiers? Did the fortification around Constantinople stop the Ottomans? There's the US-Mexico border barrier, Greece-Turkey fence, Bulgaria-Turkey fence plus Hungary, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands have all built border barriers. Have they been successful in stopping incoming refugees?

The war in Afghanistan has not ended – it is taking a new form and the Americans are calling it ‘Over-the-Horizon Strategy’ or an ‘Offshore Counterterrorism Strategy’. The US Navy has moved USS Ronald Reagan, USS Dwight D Eisenhower and USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike groups – along with their respective escorts and B-52 bombers – to the region. On June 25, USS Shiloh, a guided-missile cruiser, and USS Halsey, a guided-missile destroyer, also crossed into the US 5th Fleet from the 7th Fleet.

Is Pakistan prepared? It sure doesn't look like it. Do we have an anti-terrorism strategy in place? We must put in place an anti-terrorism infrastructure with at least five built-in capabilities: an early intelligence capability, a communications intercept capability, a mass surveillance capability, a financing tracking program and a pre-emptive neutralization capacity.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh