What will be the fate of Biden-Ghani-Abdullah summit?

US President Joe Biden met with Afghan top leaders Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah at the White House on Friday. Biden promised the Afghan leadership a “sustained” partnership while he moves to accelerate winding down the United States’ longest war amid escalating Taliban violence.

Analysts were less sanguine regarding the meeting of the trio in the backdrop of the Afghan Taliban denouncing the summit and hastening attacks in a bid to control all of Afghanistan. Biden stated that “Afghans are going to have to decide their future,” but he did not elaborate on what a “sustained” partnership might entail. However, he has asked Congress to approve $3.3 billion in security assistance for Afghanistan next year and is sending three million doses of vaccines there to help it battle COVID-19.

More than 2,400 US troops have been killed and 20,000 wounded in the war since 2001, according to the US Defense Department. It’s estimated that over 3,800 US private security contractors have been killed. The suffering has been even greater for Afghanistan with estimates showing more than 66,000 Afghan troops killed and more than 2.7 million forced to flee their homes.

According to officials, roughly 650 US troops are expected to remain in Afghanistan to provide security for diplomats after the main American military force completes its withdrawal. Several hundred additional American forces will remain at the Kabul airport, potentially until September to assist the Turkish troops providing security — a temporary move until a more formal Turkey-led security operation is in place.

Afghan observers are weighing the pros and cons of the US withdrawal of troops. Those favouring the drawdown quote Biden’s view that al-Qaeda’s leadership has disintegrated and its leader, bin Laden, has been brought to justice. Antagonists of the immediate withdrawal say the Taliban are ready to take over as the United States withdraws from Afghanistan. They are more powerful today than ever before and have maintained ties with al Qaeda and other militant groups in violation of the agreement reached with the United States. Opponents of the evacuation fear that Afghanistan could once again fall victim to a major civil war, a situation that militant groups could use against the United States and its European allies.

The visiting Afghan leaders sought reassurances that the United States will continue to provide economic assistance to Afghanistan after the withdrawal and that it will provide military assistance including air support for operations, if needed.

Meanwhile, maintaining distrust of the security forces, the Afghan warlords are building their own militias and readying them to fight the Taliban on their own, even as the Taliban gain ground. The United States would not like to see the disintegration of the Afghan security forces, which it has painstakingly trained.

One may wonder about the role of Pakistan in this situation — a country, which has borne the brunt of the carnage in Afghanistan. More than seventy five thousand precious lives have been lost, including six thousand security troops and the country has suffered the loss of trillions of dollars in property and revenues. It will not be an easy task for the United States to sustain air operations, especially after Pakistan’s refusal to provide bases to the US.

In an interview to New York Times, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has stated that post the US withdrawal, he doesn’t know what sort of military relationship it will be. He believes that the relationship should be based on this common objective that there is a political solution in Afghanistan before the United States leaves, because Pakistan doesn’t want another civil war in Afghanistan. The Pakistani premier is certain that neither does the US — after it leaves — wants the country going up in flames after spending trillions of dollars. He believes it to be a common objective.

Marvin Weinbaum, director of the Pakistan Center at the Middle East Institute, opines that there is definitely pressure to slow down the evacuation process, in light of the Taliban onslaught. He categorically declares that in light of President Biden having set a September 11 deadline, and that troops and equipment have largely been withdrawn from Afghanistan, there is little prospect of an extension of the evacuation.

One option can be delegating responsibility of maintaining peace to the forces of Muslim countries instead of the United States and NATO. However, despite the fact that the Taliban have used religion for their war, they refuse to accept the presence of Muslim forces. A military alliance of Islamic countries was formed against Iran, led by former Pakistani army chief General Raheel Sharif, but it is unlikely that the Islamic Military Alliance will pick up the gauntlet of bringing peace to Afghanistan. So far only Turkey has declared its willingness to provide security to Kabul Airport on the condition that the United States offers it a good deal. After the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Kabul Airport is considered important for the movement of its diplomats and civilian staff in the country. A few weeks ago, it was reported that President Biden wanted to take over security at Kabul Airport after the withdrawal of 600 Turkish troops, who are currently part of NATO forces. The Turkish leadership and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have also spoken openly in recent weeks. The Turkish president and other officials have said they could deploy troops if the international community is willing to bear the cost. Taliban spokesmen have made it clear in recent statements that they do not want Turkish troops to remain on their soil.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan will create a geopolitical vacuum — which will need to be filled. Another protagonist that can step in is China because the threats emerging in Afghanistan can cast shadows on China’s Xinjiang province, and affect its position in Central Asia — an area critical to the implementation of Xi Jinping’s mega project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).The next few weeks are crucial to the security situation in the region.