‘West Bengal election not a major setback for BJP’

Islamabad : Prof Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director of Lokniti, a Research Programme at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, India, was of the view that the BJP’s loss to Mamta Banerjee’s All-India Trinamool Congress (AITC) in the recently held state assembly election in West Bengal was not a major setback to the BJP.

Prof Kumar was speaking at a webinar on “Recent state assembly elections in India: results and implications” organised here by Institute of Regional Studies (IRS).

Prof Kumar said that although the BJP had performed worse than its performance in the state in the last Lok Sabha election, it performed far better than in the last assembly election in the state. He was of the view that voting more in favour of regional political parties in state assembly elections was a recurring pattern in Indian electoral politics. He was of the view that the Modi factor played an important role in the Lok Sabha election victories of the BJP.

Prof Kumar observed that the recent state assembly election could not be termed a litmus test for the performance of all the involved political parties in the upcoming Lok Sabha election in 2024. He said it was too early for any state assembly election to have any meaningful implications for the Lok Sabha election.

Prof Kumar argued that while many viewed the politics of the BJP as a polarising discourse, their voters viewed it as a uniting factor, i.e., uniting all Hindus. Therefore, he maintained, that polarisation in Indian politics had not run its course yet because it still had its takers in the electorate. He was of the opinion that it was possible but very difficult to foresee a national-level alliance emerging against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. He argued that even if such an alliance emerged, it could actually lead to counter-polarisation in favour of the BJP.

Dr Niranjan Sahoo, Senior Fellow with Observer Research Foundation’s Governance and Politics Initiative, said that polarisation in the Indian political discourse depended a lot on polarising leadership in the shape of Prime Minister Modi. He was of the view that although foreign policy was not an important factor in the internal politics of India, it could become important if it was packaged in the shape of national security discourse. Therefore, he argued that national security questions could lead to election outcomes in areas such as the Hindi heartland of India.

Responding to a question about the BJP poaching on opposition Members of Legislative Assemblies to topple governments, Dr Sahoo said that the BJP was not the only party resorting to this practice in India. Commenting on the lack of charisma of the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, Dr Sahoo remarked that Gandhi had not been able to connect to the voters at the grassroots levels, which had led to dissent within the party. Adding to Dr Sahoo’s point about Gandhi, Prof Kumar also remarked that Gandhi had become more of a liability for the party because he was unpopular even among the senior-level membership of the party.

Earlier, President IRS Ambassador Nadeem Riyaz thanked speakers from India to participate in the webinar and enlightening the audiences on the dynamics of the internal politics of India in a spirit of people-to-people interaction.