Tarbela Dam water reaches close to dead level

ISLAMABAD: In an alarming development, amid the growing water paucity, Tarbela dam level has plummeted to 1402 ft close to the dead level of 1400 feet, according to the daily water inflows and outflows data, and a Punjab government letter written to the Indus River System Authority (Irsa).

The stored water in the reservoir now stands at just 0.115 MAF, which can cater to water needs of the provinces only for two days. Also, the situation in Mangla dam is also worrying, as water level in this reservoir stands at 1111.30 ft against its crest level of 1095ft. And if the water level touches the crest level of 1095, then the massive quantum of 38,000 cusecs per day water releases to provinces will not be possible because of spillways constraints of Mangla dam. And due to massive water withdrawals from Tarbela and Mangla by both Sindh and Punjab to meet their irrigational requirements, Tarbela is most likely to touch dead level after two days, and water level in Mangla dam may also dip to its dead level of 1050 ft in the days to come.

From Indus, Punjab is taking water of 22,000 cusecs and from Mangla 50,000 cusecs per day. However, Sindh is getting water from Indus 80,000 cusecs and from Mangla 8,000 cusecs per day.

The appalling water situation in Mangla dam has also irked the Punjab government, which has wrote a letter to Irsa on May 22, 2021, calling for immediate action to control unprecedented losses and below Kotri escapes to improve current water availability situation.

The letter, a copy of which is available with The News, also mentions that the river losses in the reach Taunsa to Kotri are being reported as over 39% against anticipated losses of 30%, which is in itself a highly exaggerated figure. And during this season, until now these reported losses between Taunsa and Kotri translate into 1.2 MAF, which is almost double than the combined storage that stands at 0.742 MAF of both Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs at present. As per available record, the average losses in the Indus Zone during the period 1977 to 1999 were only 11%, which increased to 21% during the period from 2000 to 2020. The record also shows that the increase in losses is due to incorrect reporting of discharge from Sindh barrages.

In the letter, the Punjab government, while mentioning the 10 per cent water shortages, worked out by Irsa, said that the actual water availability has fallen severely short of the expectation as actual flow of Indus at Tarbela, Kabul at Nowshera and Chenab at Marala are respectively short by 21%, 29% and 33%, while on the overall, river flows are 17% short of the expected flows during the period April 1 and May 20, 2021. Ironically, instead of shifting to a revised water availability scenario, Irsa has been depleting Mangla reservoir to meet provincial requirements in accordance with the forecasted availability. As a result, Mangla reservoir level on May 22, 2021 has depleted to 1111.70 ft against planned level of 1172.36 ft.

However, the National Assembly Standing Committee on Water, which will meet on Monday (today) is also set to witness the story session as Sindh and Punjab are ready to take on each other on water shortages. Irsa may also come under fire because of its questionable working on water shortages in the Kharif season. The Sindh Member in Irsa confirmed that the NA committee is going to meet today and will take up a host of issues pertaining to water availability.

To a question, he said that below Kotri water releases that stand at 450 cusecs per day are imperative to cater to drinking water needs of Kotri, Hyderabad, Latifabad and Hussainabad. He said that releasing 5,000 cusecs of water per day is a must to avoid the sea intrusion, but the province is not releasing as the country is facing a huge water shortage. He said that Sindh is currently facing 46 per cent water shortage.

According to the officials in Punjab Irrigation Department, Punjab is set to take on Sindh in NA standing committee meeting for water releases downstream Kotri in the presence of the water shortages that are much more than the shortages anticipated by Irsa. Punjab will also express its reservations over Irsa decision to provide water to Sindh from Mangla dam, arguing this decision will not help fill the dam in the Kharif season.

Officials at the Punjab Irrigation Department, according to the sources, are also ready for the response to the Punjab government officials. In the NA committee meeting, Ministry of Water Resources is also set to give tough time to Irsa questioning the working of water regulator about the ‘wrong’ water availability in current Kharif season owing to which the water crisis has aggravated more as the actual water shortage have surges than shortages, worked out by Irsa.

However, Irsa is also set to respond to the Ministry of Water Resources with arguments. In to-to, the NA committee on water will witness the stormy session, sources in Punjab and Sindh governments said.

The Punjab government also says in the letter that irrigation supplies of Jhelum-Chenab Zone canals are heavily dependent on water drawn from Mangla reservoir, especially in the Rabi season. Therefore, in case Mangla reservoir is not filled, Jhelum-Chenab Zone canals will heavily suffer during the coming Rabi 2021-22.

Punjab also highlighted the fact that around 450 Cs are being continuously released below Kotri since the commencement of this Kharif, despite severe shortages and in violation of water availability criteria, approved by Irsa with consensus of all the provinces. As of now, 0.052 MAF water has been lost in this manner. What is more worrying is that this is not an unusual pattern.

During the last Rabi 2020-21, around 0.56 MAF water was allowed to escape below Kotri in the face of repeated protests by Punjab. The Punjab government, in its letter, also says that in the present circumstances, the current and expected shortages can only be controlled by reducing losses in Taunsa to Kotri reach.