Stepping back from the brink?

By Ansar Abbasi

ISLAMABAD: Recent moves on the country”s political chessboard suggest mounting troubles for the ruling PTI and long-awaited relief for the opposition, particularly the PMLN.

There are clear signs of a thaw in the extremely cool relations between the PMLN and the military establishment. This is happening without there being any confirmed reports of any direct, behind the scenes contact between Nawaz Sharif and key figures representing the institutions. The situation, on the other hand, is not as rosy as it was earlier for the PTI.

Some recent statements by Muhammad Zubair, the spokesman for Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, and former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi were widely seen as representing a change in the policy of aggression that the party’s top leadership had unleashed against the establishment’s key players that had been in place until recently.

Background interactions confirm that while Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam were unhappy with what Muhammad Zubair had said about there being some sort of rapprochement between the PMLN and the establishment, there is no denying that the PMLN has changed its tone and tenor against the powers that be.

It is now being said that Nawaz Sharif does not want to continue with his aggressive posture against some figures in the establishment. However, PMLN sources deny that there has been any behind the scenes contact that could explain this sudden change of heart.

There are two reasons for the change in strategy, they say. Firstly, there has been a realization that in its criticism against the establishment, the party should not go to such an extent that the difference between individuals and the institution become blurred. This stance would ultimately hurt the party politically, it is now becoming evident, despite the view that the ‘aggressive phase’ has also worked well to make the other side realise its mistakes.

Secondly, the PMLN now feels there has been some easing in the relentless pressure being applied on its leadership. Shahbaz Sharif and Hamza Sharif have got bail from the court, NAB is no longer eager to arrest Maryam Nawaz and the inquiry against Capt Safdar has been dropped too.

In a recent interaction with journalists, the establishment too appeared to take a not-so-harsh line against the PMLN. The takeaway from the interaction is that the powers that be do not consider Nawaz Sharif as being anti-Pakistan. The establishment also denies that it played any role in the cases against the Sharifs. A few months ago, even this scribe was told that during his rule, Nawaz Sharif always gave respect to the establishment’s players.

The PMLN has been alleging that the judiciary was pressurised to punish Nawaz and Maryam. For its part, the establishment does not admit any role in this matter and insists that it will let the courts decide the fate of the cases. Without discussing what the establishment has been doing in the past or what allegations it is now facing, there is an understanding within the institution that it should not be dragged into controversies on political matters.

After what the country saw following the direct onslaught against top establishment players by Maryam and Nawaz, there is now an apparent retreat by both sides to help things cool down. Shahbaz is out of jail without carving an S-League out of the N-league. His release could help further improve relations between the two sides.

Meanwhile on the other side, the performance of the PTI government has disappointed many including its supporters within the establishment. While there are issues with the Centre and Imran Khan as well, it is Punjab that has been the greatest worry. In the shape of Buzdar, the running of the province continues to bother many, including powerful forces, even now.

For whatever reason, the many failures of the PTI government have been linked by many to the establishment. The PTI is getting unpopular because of multiple issues of governance, including the state of the economy. On the other hand, the popularity of the PMLN is on the rise, most notably in the largest province as a spate of recent by-elections show. Today, even those journalists who had fervently campaigned for Imran Khan’s tabdeeli project and were also known for their close contacts with the establishment, are heard speaking in favour of the PMLN and against the PTI.

The emergence of Jehangir Tareen’s group and its open confrontation with the ruling party is also considered not a simple phenomenon connected to the sugar investigation alone. There is clearly more to it than meets the eye.

Sources say that Imran Khan appears increasingly apprehensive these days. Some expect something ‘big’ from him any time soon and predict that the next six months are most important. Fingers crossed!