Cyclone Tauktae may cause up to 80mm of rainfall in Karachi

A meeting held at the Chief Minister House on Saturday to discuss the cyclone emergency was told that starting Tuesday, Karachi may experience dust storms, thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Sindh CM Syed Murad Ali Shah has declared an emergency in all the districts located along the coastal belt to take precautionary measures for meeting any untoward situation, and ordered the removal of all the billboards in Karachi as a precautionary measure.

“Emergency should be declared in all the districts along the coastal belt of Sindh, while a control room should be established at the chief secretary’s office to maintain close coordination with all the districts in respect of their requirements and for issuing them necessary instructions on behalf of the government.”

Briefing the CM, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Director Sardar Sarfraz said that there are two possible tracks of Cyclone Tauktae, adding that if the cyclone crosses India’s Gujarat, its outer peripheral effect would be on Thatta, Badin, Mirpurkhas, Tharparkar, Umerkot and Sanghar districts.

He said that then Thatta, Badin and Mirpurkhas would each receive a heavy rainfall of 70mm to 90mm, Umerkot 80mm to 100mm and Tharparkar would receive a very heavy rainfall of 230mm to 250mm.

He pointed out that if the cyclone crosses the north-west and crosses the west of Karachi, its outer peripheral effect would be on Karachi, Hub, Lasbela, Hyderabad and Jamshoro districts.

He said that then Karachi would receive 60mm to 80mm of rainfall, Hyderabad 30mm to 50mm, Jamshoro 150mm to 170mm, Dadu 180mm to 200mm, Bela and Sukkur 80mm to 100mm each, and Jacobabad 60mm to 80mm.

Sarfraz said that there is a generic term for non-frontal anti-clockwise rotating weather system with surface wind ranging from 34 to 47 knots (kts). He added that it usually causes three types of impacts: torrential rains, thunderstorms, and high intensity winds and storm surges.

He said that the main source of energy for tropical cyclones is the warm water in tropical regions, adding that to initiate a tropical cyclone, the sea surface temperature generally becomes 26 degrees Celsius. He also said that the cyclone classification in Pakistan and South Asia causes different kinds of disturbances.

He explained that gusty winds and damage in detaching fruit from the tree is caused when a depression develops a pressure of 996 hectopascal or millibar (hPa/mb) with a wind speed of 22 to 27 kts.

He continued that when deep depression with a pressure of 986 to 995 hPa/mb develops with a wind speed of 28 to 33 kts, negligible damages are caused to houses, fruit trees, some crops and caravans.

He said that when a cyclonic storm has a pressure of 971 to 970 hPa/mb along with a wind speed of 34 to 47 kts, it causes minor damages to houses and significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts.

He added that a severe cyclonic storm emerges when there is a pressure of 930 to 955 hPa/mb with a speed of 64 to 89 kts, and it causes significant structural damage, with caravans blown away.

In this way, concluded Sarfraz, the two other categories are extremely severe cyclonic storm and super cyclonic storm, which cause extensive damages to houses, and power and communication lines.

Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Director General Salman Shah told the meeting that the depression over the Southeast Arabian sea has intensified into Cyclonic Storm Tauktae, lying centred at 0800 PST of 15 May 2021 near latitude 12.7N and longitude 72.3E, at a distance of about 1460km south-south-east of Karachi.

He said that the maximum sustained winds around the system centre are 90 to 110 kilometres per hour (kmph), gusting to 120 kmph, adding that the system is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 12 to 18 hours, moving in the north-north-west direction and reaching India’s Gujarat by the morning of May 18.

He pointed out that under the influence of this system, widespread heavy to very heavy dust storms, thunderstorms, rains with gusty winds of 80 to 100 kmph are likely to occur in Thatta, Badin, Thar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Sanghar districts between May 17 and 20.

He said that dust storms, thunderstorms and rains with a few heavy falls and gusty winds of 50 to 70 kmph are also likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Shaheed Benazirabad, Sukkur, Larkana, Shikarpur, Jacobabad and Dadu between May 18 and 20. He added that the sea conditions would be rough to very rough, advising fishermen not to venture into the sea between May 16 and 20.

Considering the presentations by the PMD and the PDMA, the chief executive directed the administrations in Karachi to start clearing all the choking points of nullahs.

He ordered Karachi Commissioner Naveed Shaikh and Karachi Metropolitan Corporation Administrator Laeeq Ahmed to start removing all the billboards and neon signs, and to ask builders to take precautionary measures to secure their under-construction structures.

He directed the PDMA to provide dewatering machines and generators to the district administrations in the city as well as in the other districts of the province where they may be required. He ordered fishermen not to go in deep sea for fishing from Sunday.

The fishermen of the districts of Karachi, Thatta, Sujawal and Badin have been asked to observe maximum caution in this regard during the coming few days.

The fishermen already at sea for fishing have been advised to urgently come back to the coast to avoid human and material losses due to the incoming cyclone.

They have been advised to contact in advance the Meteorological Department or the office of the Fisheries Director in Sindh next time before going to sea after the situation of weather emergency comes to an end.

The CM directed Chief Secretary Mumtaz Ali Shah to set up a control room in his office and post a grade-19 officer as its head to note down the requirements of the districts and issue the necessary instructions to the respective administrations on behalf of the government.

He ordered the Tharparkar administration to take extraordinary measures because the district is expected to receive very heavy rains.

He said that all the district administrations should make alternative accommodation arrangements if moving people becomes necessary. He directed the CS to seek the monetary requirements from the district administrations and ensure timely release of funds. He also directed the district administrations to set up control rooms in their respective jurisdictions.

He ordered Irrigation Minister Sohail Siyal to declare an emergency in his department and ensure proper monitoring of the embankments of the canals as well as the distributaries.

The CM directed Local Government Minister Syed Nasir Hussain Shah and Rehabilitation Minister Faraz Dero to stay in Karachi and personally monitor each and every arrangement.

The meeting was also attended by CM’s adviser Barrister Murtaza Wahab, Senior Member Board of Revenue Alamuddin Bullo, Additional CS (Home) Dr Usman Chachar, CM’s principal secretary Sajid Jamal Abro, Finance Secretary Hassan Naqvi and Corps Commander (Engineers) Brig Qazi Nasir Mehmood. The irrigation and LG ministers attended the meeting through videoconferencing, along with the deputy commissioners of the coastal belt district.

Control cell

The Government of Sindh has established a central control cell on the second floor of the new Sindh Secretariat building No. 1 in Karachi in view of the tropical cyclone Tauktae.

A handout released

by the government states that the cell will work round the clock, and resolve issues throughout the province related to rains that are expected due to the cyclone.

The cell will coordinate with other cells established for the purpose by Sindh’s inspector general of police, Rangers director general, health and home departments, and Provincial Disaster Management Authority, as well as by the commissioners and deputy commissioners at the divisional headquarters in their respective jurisdictions.

The cell will provide guidance and assistance to the general public on any query regarding the rain emergency. It is being head by Muhammad Hanif Channa, secretary (general administration) of the Sindh government’s Services General Administration & Coordination Department.

According to the government notification, the helpline number of the central control cell is 1070, the telephone No. is 021-99222967, the fax No. is 021-99222655, the email address is rainemergency@gmail.com and the WhatsApp No. is 0317-0266875.