Implications for the world if Corona crisis in India intensifies

The fresh wave of COVID-19 has hit India hard. World Health Organization (WHO) figures last week indicated that India accounted for 46% of all cases of the coronavirus recorded worldwide. According to WHO’s weekly report on the corona epidemic, in the past one week, about 5.7 million cases of corona have been reported in the world and 93,000 deaths have been caused by the virus. In India, 2.6 million new cases were reported during this one week and the spread of the epidemic spiked by 20%. The epidemic killed 23,231 people in India last week.

For various reasons, the epidemic figures in India are higher than the official figures, because a sizable number of patients die at home and thus remain under the radar. India is home to 18% of the world’s population, hence, a serious crisis in India could have potential effects on the whole world.

The WHO report reveals that after the outbreak of the epidemic in India, the spread of corona in Nepal has increased by 137% in the last week and there have been more than 31,000 cases in a week. According to the WHO, Sri Lanka is also seeing an increase in cases of coronavirus. Cases of the Indian variant have also come to light in the African country of Uganda on May 1. Leading health officials have expressed concern that the spread of the epidemic in the African country could accelerate because of this variant.

The variant of the coronavirus, which has been diagnosed in India as a whole, has now reportedly been detected in more than 18 countries around the world. Experts opine that there have been two key mutations in the external spike of the virus in the B.1.617 variant. The WHO has described the species in India as a “variant of interest”. That is, there is still a lot of information to come out about it, which will determine whether these changes in the virus have led to an increase in its spread and an increase in the severity of the disease, as well as the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Virologists around the globe are studying the phenomenon. Chris Murray, an expert on epidemiological changes at the University of Washington in the United States, says the scale of the epidemic in India in a very short period of time suggests that there may be another type in the middle which may have fallen through the cracks.

In this context, experts say that before the Indian variant came to light, the variant of Brazil and the United Kingdom had accelerated the spread of the epidemic in other regions, including the United States. Therefore, the effects of the variant emerging in India, a country with a population of over one and a half billion, cannot be limited to India alone. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, have imposed travel bans on India since the Indian variant was unveiled. However, Somiya Swami Nathan, chief scientist at the WHO, says the virus does not distinguish between borders, age, sex or religion.

India cannot be isolated from the world but Devi Sreedharne, Head of the Department of Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, in her article published in the British newspaper ‘Guardian’ said that the closure of borders cannot completely stop the spread of any variant but its speed can be slowed down.

The crisis in India could have a direct bearing on the production and supply of the vaccine to different parts of the world. According to the Invest India website, India accounts for 20% of the world’s supply of generic drugs. India’s pharmaceutical industry ranks third in the world in terms of productivity and 14th in terms of its finances. There are 3,000 pharmaceutical companies in India, with plants approved by the FDA, the World Health Organization and other international organizations. Hence global vaccination efforts could be affected. Currently, Serum Institute of India (SII) is the world’s largest vaccine maker. The WHO and GAVI were to provide 40 million doses in March and 50 million doses in April under the COVAX program to deliver vaccines to 64 poor countries. Earlier, SII had exported 28 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine. However, after the situation in Corona deteriorated in March, India has temporarily suspended vaccine exports. According to experts, this situation will affect the global corona vaccination efforts.

Associated Press reported that last month the director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged India to lift restrictions on vaccine exports so that vaccination could begin on the African continent. It should be noted that most of the countries in Africa were to be provided with vaccine doses under the WHO program, the largest number of which will be manufactured in India.

India is the sixth largest economy in the world and according to the IMF, its role in the world’s economic growth rate is very important. According to an IMF survey released in January this year, the global economy was expected to improve in 2021. However, the problems of emerging economies such as Brazil, South Africa and India will also affect the overall global growth rate. According to a CNBC report, Indian economist Sonam Varma estimates that India’s output will be limited to 1.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year. In addition, travel restrictions imposed due to the severity of the epidemic will have a direct impact on the Indian and global economies. Last month, the US Chamber of Commerce also expressed concern that the economic problems facing India due to the epidemic would lead to a slowdown in the global economy. One can only pray for the situation to ease since the Indian Corona crisis can impact the whole world.