Tareen factor in PTI

When on Thursday Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) No 2 Jehangir Khan Tareen named his 40 MNAs and MPAs as his ‘group’, he practically declared a ‘forward bloc’ whether you name it or not. His house at present has become a ‘safe haven’ for the PTI rebels, who remain with him round-the-clock whereas the house of Prime Minister Imran Khan looks ‘disordered.’ No one knows who will have the final smile.

This is certainly not a pleasant sight for someone like Imran Khan, who in his cricketing days is known for taking pressure. But the politics is not cricket and he looks under pressure, as for the first time some sign of losing control over the party and the government is quite visible. The party’s MNAs and MPAs who have sided with JKT have never been so critical.

The dilemma for IK is that he is facing a challenge from the man he once had ‘blind faith’ in. Now, he has to choose between his narrative of ‘across the board accountability’ and fear of losing the government.

On the other hand, JKT, speaking from the position of strength, rejected the request from the government committee for a meeting with him. He proposed his ‘group’ meeting directly with the Prime Minister Imran Khan. If such a meeting takes place in a day or two, the IK would not be meeting with his party MNAs and MPAs but with the JKT group.

Only IK knows better what’s the message will go, but on the ground PM has left no other choice but to meet the rebels as his government, both at the Centre and in Punjab, is largely dependent on JKT group.

JKT now wants a working relationship with IK on equal terms and also wants action against those within the party or government who ‘conspired’ against him and who targeted him in ‘sugar mafia scam’. PM on the other hand till yesterday, looked convinced over the Sugar Commission report and on the matter related to money-laundering.

Even if the issue is resolved between the two one thing is certain that the two will never have the kind of friendship, relationship and confidence they had in the past. The Tareen factor will continue to haunt IK in time to come.

On Thursday, he reiterated his commitment not to bow down before the ‘sugar mafia’ In case he meets the JKT group which leads to softening his stance and relief for Tareen, it would be interpreted as ‘NRO’ for Tareen.

On the contrary, if IK asks the FIA and other agencies to go ahead which leads to the arrest of Tareen, the reaction from the group could lead to the fall of IK government both at the Centre and in Punjab while reports of dissent is also coming from KP.

Former PPP leader and MNA Raja Riaz, who has now taken a job as JKT group spokesperson, has said that his group meeting with the PTI would revolve around the inquiry against JKT and some of the people within the government who they believe are giving a bad name to JKT.

Imran’s government from the day one is on the clutches of coalition partners and now is on the mercy of his own party men. Prior to the formation of JKT group, it constantly faced pressure from the coalition partners like PML-Q and MQM-Pakistan both at the Centre and in Punjab. In the last few months, it did succumb to the pressure. Few months back, he was on no-talking terms with Chaudhrys of Gujarat but revived his relationship after threat to the government.

Tareen’s entry into PTI came in the aftermath of the massive power show by Imran Khan at Minar-e-Pakistan on Oct 30, 2011. IK reposed his full confidence in JKT and stood by him during all crises within the party--from the intra-party elections to JKT disqualification.

He even rejected and dismissed allegations against Tareen levelled by the party stalwarts like Hamid Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

On JKT’s advice, Imran included many ‘electable’ in the party without realising that those joining the party were not IK but JKT loyalists. He also played a key role in the post-2013 general elections situation particularly during 2014 dharna.

JKT was Imran’s ideal choice for the Chief Minister of Punjab and he himself once said that his disqualification and NAB inquiry against Aleem Khan as well as friction among PTI leaders led to his decision to bring Usman Buzdar, a newcomer in the party, as Chief Minister of Punjab.

Imran also ignored Shah Mehmood’s concern that the Tareen factor was responsible for his defeat on the provincial assembly seat otherwise he was the automatic choice for CM Punjab.

One of the problems is the inability of IK to resolve the crisis within the party. Some people think he does it deliberately in order to keep his control which is nothing unusual in the political parties. But, it has now started hurting the party as happened in the last by-elections particularly in the case of brother of former CM KP Pervez Khattak who was defeated in Nowshera, the party’s stronghold.

The latest in the series was the defeat of former Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh who lost senate seat to PDM’s joint candidate and former Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani. During an internal party inquiry, it was established that JKT group allegedly voted for YRG and IK was shocked.

Prime Minister Imran at present is in such a weak position that his allies like PML-Q, MQM-Pakistan and even Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) are more close to JKT than with IK.

For all practical purposes, Imran’s government’s survival and that of his blue-eyed boy Punjab CM Usman Buzdar are now at the mercy of JKT group.

The Tareen factor is now a reality and in the recent week it has hurt Imran Khan as many party MNAs and MPAs are siding themselves with JKT without any fear or possible action from the party. All this has weakened the Prime Minister who is fast losing control and grip which once he used to have on the party and on the government.

JKT has opened his card which in itself indicates his confidence and resolve that he means business in his future relationship with IK.

He also knows that from now on he not only wants to protect himself but his groupmembers as well who have joined him by burning their ‘boat’. He has now put the ball in the latter's court while keeping his door open for the talks.

Though not very visible but pressure is building up within the PTI that Prime Minister should not succumb to the ‘blackmailing’ of this ‘group’ no matter what the outcome would be.

Thus the crisis within the PTI has threatened Imran Khan and is far more challenging than the opposition parties or the alliance like Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) ever posed.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO