Pro-independence parties could win 79 MSPs: poll

EDINBURGH: Pro-independence parties could win 79 of the Scottish Parliament’s 129 seats in the upcoming election, a new opinion poll suggests.

Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party would win six seats, according to an analysis of the Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times. The SNP would win a narrow outright majority with 65 seats, with the Scottish Greens forecast to take eight seats.

An analysis of the poll by Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University put the Scottish Conservatives on 24 seats, Scottish Labour on 20 and the Liberal Democrats on five. George Galloway could enter the Scottish Parliament as his pro-union Alliance for Unity group may take a single seat.

Panelbase surveyed 1,009 adults in Scotland between March 30 and April 1. It is the second opinion poll to include Alba since the party was launched by the former first minister to contest the regional list seats.

In the constituency vote, the SNP was on 49 per cent, with the Tories on 22 per cent, Labour on 20 per cent and the Lib Dems on 6 per cent.

For the regional list vote, the SNP was on 39 per cent, with the Conservatives on 21 per cent, Labour on 17 per cent, and the Greens on 8 per cent and the Lib Dems on 5 per cent. The poll had Alba on 6 per cent for the regional list vote, with All for Unity on 4 per cent.

Writing in the Sunday Times, Sir John said Panelbase’s results were “good news” for the Alba Party, though a drop of just 2 per cent in support would mean their tally would fall to one MSP.

The polling expert said: “Alba may be on the cusp of recording a creditable performance and coming away largely empty-handed.

“Although most of the seats the party could win with a 6 per cent tally look as though they would be secured at the expense of the unionist parties, our projection suggests that a couple might otherwise have been won by the SNP or the Greens.

“Even with an estimated 49 per cent of the constituency vote, that is not a possibility the SNP will regard with equanimity.

“Such a result in the constituencies could still leave the party a seat short of an overall majority and reliant on winning a vital list seat to achieve what has come to be regarded as a crucial target.”

Responding to the poll, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This is the most important election in Scotland’s history – every single vote will count, and this poll shows that giving anything less than both votes to the SNP means gambling with Scotland’s future.

“These serious times require serious leadership, and people across the country can put their trust in the experience of Nicola Sturgeon as we move through the pandemic and towards a strong, secure recovery.”