Economic recovery

Usually, to establish a particular economic policy and set the country on the right track to follow it over a prolonged period of time, governments ensure that one direction is taken and that the same team leads the economy for a period of time. In a government elected for five years, we would expect some degree at least of stability and harmony in economic planning. But we now have a situation where a third finance minister has been appointed, with Hammad Azhar elevated to this post, while at the same time, we were told that this may not be a permanent position for him, and that another former PPP minister, Shaukat Tareen may take the reins soon. It seems the plan, however, is for the Economic Advisory Committee to be initially handled by Tareen in an attempt to harmonise the economy and bring the various segments within it together. After that, we could, under Tareen, see a change in the policy steps taken so far, including the increase in the interest rate and steps to bring down inflation, which has obviously been a major blow to the country. Naturally, a relief to the people would be welcomed by most and almost every ordinary Pakistani.

But how this is to be achieved is something that Shaukat Tareen and his team would first need to advise the government on and whether Tareen does indeed take on the post of finance minister, something which he has said is conditional to the appeal against the verdict in his favour in a NAB case by the LHC, as the head of the economic planning in the country. Tareen as we have seen from his previous performance, would favour a continuation with the IMF. Indeed, Pakistan cannot escape the IMF at this point at any rate. But it can work to build its revenues and to encourage investment in the country as well as consider the raise in electricity tariff, which is on the cards. To achieve this, the first ingredient that is required is greater confidence in the country, in the stability of government, and in the economy. This is lacking at the present time, because of the manner in which the government has run affairs with one U-turn following another. This obviously will not encourage investors to bring their money into the country.

To create confidence and faith in the government, we first of all require stability. We must consider what factors have damaged this. They include frequent changes in the policies of the government, in posts within the cabinet and other places which play a part in the economy such as the FBR or the BOI and also the policies followed by NAB. Those working within the government complain that NAB does not allow them to move forward. These are all factors that have to be considered. And we can only hope that whether under Tareen or some other individual, the country's economy can indeed move forward towards growth and greater stability which would bring down this crippling inflation.