PML-N, PPP reverting to their sorry past

ISLAMABAD: The cause of the current yawning chasm between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is virtually identical to the reasons that had led to the breakdown in their relations more than once in the past.

Political expediency and various pressures and compulsions have been forcing them to vacillate between cordiality and the worst of relations. Both parties have learnt and unlearnt past lessons and have kept repeating their blunders for momentary gains. In all these years, they have not rebuilt their ties on a more durable basis. As a result, both parties have kept repeating old mistakes.

After relentless attempts by both sides to annihilate each other in the political arena through every kind of conspiracy involving the then powerful president during the nineties, a time came in 2008 when PML-N nominees even joined the PPP-led federal cabinet while Pervez Musharraf was still the president. The PML-N had later described the induction of its nominees in the cabinet as a “bitter pill that it swallowed for the sake of democracy”.

However, the induction of PML-N representatives in the cabinet, which was sworn in by Musharraf, showed that the two parties had moved a long distance away from their sorry past. This was a consequence of the Charter of Democracy (CoD), signed by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in London on May 15, 2006.

After the C0D, relations between the two parties remained relatively cordial for quite some time. However, they deteriorated when Nawaz Sharif, wearing a black coat, pursued a petition in the Supreme Court relating to what was then known as Memogate. This was a gross misstep on the part of the PML-N. It only helped put further pressure on the then cornered President Asif Ali Zardari. Mistrust and misgivings then continued to pile up once again.

Subsequently, a reversal of roles happened. Just a day before Zardari was to dine with the then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, the PPP supremo hurled a serious threat to the establishment saying he could destroy it. After that address, the premier hastily revoked his invitation -- much to the chagrin and embarrassment of Zardari. Soon after, Zardari had to leave Pakistan in view of the perceived risks involved in his staying in the country. He returned after 18 months following the retirement of the then chief of army staff.

In 2008, Zardari had done exactly as he has done now. The difference is that previously it was over the nomination of the president of Pakistan while now it was the selection of the leader of the opposition in the Senate. While the PML-N was expecting consultations with the PPP for fielding a contestant for the president as part of their previous negotiations -- held before and after the general elections-- Zardari himself announced his candidacy -- leaving the PML-N sullen and bitter.

At that time there was no formal alliance between them. Now when they are both in the fold of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and when they were meant to reach a consensus on the opposition leader in the Upper House of Parliament -- like they did in the recent by-elections and Senate polls-- the PPP unilaterally got Yousaf Raza Gillani named by even taking votes from the ruling coalition ally, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP).

Ironically, Sadiq Sanjrani was elected as the Senate chairman in a close fight and Gillani became the opposition leader with the votes of the same BAP. The PPP is at a loss to defend itself on this count. It has secured the Senate slot at the altar of the PDM, which now seems destined to be a short-lived opposition grouping. Even in a loose alliance, the component parties normally remain glued to each other on the principle of give and take. It can’t remain united if one party continues in its obsession with just taking and aggressively desists conceding anything. The PML-N and other PDM parties wholeheartedly voted for Gillani in his race for the Islamabad seat and Senate chairman but when it came to the PPP’s support to the PML-N nominee for the opposition leader’s berth, it reneged on its solemn commitment on one unconvincing pretext or the other.

The second major development demonstrating the PPP’s backtracking came when a little over six months after the signing of the CoD, the top PPP leaders held a meeting with the then Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Ashfaque Pervez Kayani in Abu Dhabi. Much before that, hectic spadework had been done for this session; when the CoD was being inked, the PPP was already engaged in talks with the establishment to get Musharraf re-elected as the president in exchange for the notorious NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance). The NRO had also paved the way for the undoing of thousands of criminal cases against the Muttahidda Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) leaders and activists.

Although the NRO was scrapped by the Supreme Court, Benazir Bhutto, against strong opposition and warnings by Musharraf, had flown into Pakistan where she was welcomed by a massive crowd and a terrorist attack in which more than 150 people were killed. She survived the assassination attempt. Soon after Benazir came back, Nawaz Sharif also did the same, ending his exile and resuming normal politics. However, he did not take part in the 2008 general elections. It was because of the understanding between the PPP and PML-N that the constitutional ban on a two-time prime minister becoming the premier for the third time was dispensed with in the 18th Amendment.

An important new factor in the country’s politics that has so far immensely benefited the PPP and its sponsors is the creation of the BAP. It is no secret that Zardari patronised the process of the elimination of the PML-N parliamentary party in the Balochistan Assembly with the backing of the powers that be just before the 2018 Senate elections. All the PML-N lawmakers had joined the BAP overnight, depriving the PML-N of at least six seats in the Senate. Zardari had openly boasted of this achievement in Balochistan as the new provincial cabinet had met him.

But that was then. Now it was the support of a few senators of BAP that had made Gillani’s selection as the opposition leader in the Upper House of Parliament possible. This emphasised the important role BAP has assumed in parliament. In one sense, it has become the kingmaker in just three years of its existence, something that no political force has to its credit. Its support got Sanjrani elected as the Senate chairman and has made Gillani the opposition leader. In future parliamentary politics, the BAP factor will remain relevant in making and breaking governments.

Unlike the PML-N, the PPP clearly doesn’t want snap elections as it believes that it will not be able to get many dividends especially in Punjab as its position is yet to considerably improve. Before the next polls, it wishes to make alliances-- formal or informal, announced or unannounced --with other political parties like the PML-Q and south Punjab electables. Its soft corner for the PML-Q is indicative of its future plan. In case the PPP makes solid gains in future elections, it is likely that the BAP’s support will once again be forthcoming.