Republicans’ moment of truth

The writer, a Chevening scholar, studied International Journalism at the University of Sussex.

In the event of an electoral defeat, the losing political parties generally use the post-election time to introspect and deliberate on the likely causes of the poor performance, and review strategy to respond to the challenges of the future.

Though the process of soul-searching remains underway until the next elections, its urgency is informed by the need to repair cracks in the party, promote fresh thinking and rally around a message that is capable of resonating with the electorate.

As the events happening in the background of American elections in general and January 6, in particular, show, nothing of the sort seems to be happening for the Grand Old Party (GOP), which finds itself bogged down in the political crisis since the infamous Watergate scandal in the 1970s.

As America comes to terms with the desecration of Capitol Hill and fathoms the broader ramifications of the ‘insurrection’, the politics of the Republican Party has been reduced to the three key factors: the impeachment of former president Donald Trump, his role and influence in the party and a deepening gulf of differences between the traditional and populist blocs on the way forward for the GOP.

The fact that Trump continues to be the mover and shaker of the GOP’s politics in his ‘political afterlife’ is evidenced by the sheer majority of 45 Republican senators out of 50 voting against the constitutionality of the impeachment. This consensus among Republican senators flies in the face of an expectation of bipartisan impeachment proceedings created in the wake of the fateful day of January 6.

The Republican senators based their opposition to a technical plea that only sitting presidents can be impeached, an intentional effort to make light of the fundamental role played by Trump in inciting the revolt against the citadel of American democracy.

Trump may have earned the notoriety of having been impeached twice by the House of Representatives, the possibility of the impeachment proceedings reaching their culmination in the Senate remains dim, given the need for the two/third votes. In the absence of an impeachment followed by an approved resolution to bar him from running for office in 2024, the former president remains very much at the center of the political game.

At the moment, the Republican Party remains deeply divided between the governing and the populist factions as Whit Ayres, the president of North Star Opinion Research put it in an interview with the Public Broadcasting Service.

While the governing faction seeks to reclaim the party ahead of the mid-term elections next year, the populist group has been going from strength to strength under Trump who has helped increase its support base through his ‘making America great again’ slogan.

The ongoing leadership crisis in the party is thrown into sharp relief in the presence of starkly different approaches being followed by the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, and Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell.

Aware of the huge following that the former US president enjoys particularly at the grassroots, McCarthy has made Donald Trump pivotal to the GOP’s efforts to reclaim the Congress in 2022. After a meeting with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, he said that the former president was “committed to helping elect Republicans in the House and Senate and Senate in 2022.”

Mitch McConnell, despite opposing the impeachment bid, is looking for ways to cut Trump out of the GOP’s system in order to brighten his party’s chances in the elections. As The New York Times reported, he has been undercut by McCarthy’s approach of appeasing Trump, clear in the thought that the latter’s domination of the Republican Party’s political messaging will be disastrous for its electoral prospects.

The diametrically divergent positions taken by the GOP’s leaders have sent out confusing signals to the lawmakers who remain unable to decide whether to embrace Trump or shun him, given the pros and cons such an act entails.

The deepening sense of bewilderment with the elected representatives of the party was articulated by Senator Lisa Murkowski who said: “There are certain elements of the party that are not ready to move on, not ready to say that Donald Trump lost.” She is one of the five Republican senators who supported the impeachment bid against the former president.

As the fissures within the Republican Party widen on ideological lines, moderate Republicans are adopting neutrality in the name of promoting unity. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), is one such leader who is raising a voice for unity and against “attacking fellow Republicans” as a way forward to win back a majority in the US Congress.

The ‘Stop the Steal’ banner that headlined Trump’s election campaign has proven to be quite effective. Despite the fact that he has been off Twitter for some time, his message of ‘voter fraud’ and ‘stolen election’ has not ceased to find traction with his core constituency.

Trump’s maverick and deeply polarizing political approach may have cost Republicans the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the White House, but his “demagogic style of politics” has galvanized the core constituency that now looks up to him. His brand of politics has paved the way for the far-right of the party to occupy the center-stage.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right, conspiracy theorist Republican from Georgia, spoke to this emerging reality that marks the party. She stated: “The vast majority of Republican voters, volunteers, and donors are no longer loyal to [the] GOP…. Their loyalty now lies with Donald J Trump.”

The sweep of Trumpism within the GOP is so complete that any attempt at expressing dissent is punished with abuse, allegation and character assassination. Trump’s threat of forming an independent party made Republican senators put up a strong defence for him in the US Senate, leading the former to dial down the threat of secession.

A concerted campaign spearheaded by Matt Gaetz, a Florida Congressman, and Trump Junior, the former president’s son, against House Republican Liz Cheney for supporting the articles of impeachment is another case in point. This is happening despite the fact that Ms Cheney has tried her level best to mend fences and offer her support to the party’s nominations.

The problem with the Establishment-aligned Republicans is that they understand the depth of the problems that Trumpism has posed but are unable to publicly cross him for fear of losing the grassroots support base whose loyalty Trump unquestioningly commands.

GOP’s predicament is that its future has been tied to the street that is angry, hyperactive and anarchist. Given the kind of party leadership on display, it is not easy to wrest the initiative from the street. Trump symbolizes the deep transformation in the political landscape, and has virtually become the leader of the Republican Party.

Traditional Republicans face a moment of truth in their political life, a do-or-die moment. As Whit Ayres put it in his interview with the PBS, a lot depends on a number of variables, which include the kind of governance the Biden White House offers as well as the future plans Donald Trump may have conjured up for his political career.

The march of a deeply divisive and personalized politics can be stemmed by the rise of an inclusive leadership from within the GOP, whose possibility, though distant at the moment, cannot be ruled out altogether.

Until such time, the decline of American politics, nay that of its democracy, remains too glaring to be ignored.

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Twitter: @Amanat222