Political future

It is becoming extremely unclear what the future will bring for the country. The PDM, the combined opposition of 11 political parties, has pledged once again at its final rally at Larkana on December 27, held on the same day as the anniversary of the death of Benazir Bhutto in 2007, that it will not go back on its word to overthrow the government. Both Asif Ali Zardari and Maryam Nawaz pointed out that Imran Khan had already said he was struggling to run the government. On these grounds, they argued that he should step down. Bilawal Bhutto, meanwhile, pledged that the long march to Islamabad will go ahead if the government does not resign by January 31 of the coming year.

But there are complications involved in all this. In the first place, it has been unclear how the opposition intends to overthrow a government which insists it is competent, which is confident and which seemingly says it faces no real sense of threat. Asif Ali Zardari, a veteran politician, who has seen many developments unfold in the country, stressed at the rally that rather than putting forward different strategies and policies, the opposition should combine and hold a consultation on what the next step is to be. Zardari said that he was familiar with how to topple people in power and had done so in the case of a dictator such as General Pervez Musharraf. He suggested that in these circumstances Imran Khan would not present a major threat. The talk of a change in tactics from Zardari and an out-of-the-box approach to overthrowing the government opens up more speculation and more possibilities.

At the same time, there are also issues for the opposition in the sense of the divide within them. The JUI-F, whose Maulana Fazlur Rehman heads the PDM, has had a major falling out within its own ranks. This, of course, weakens the party with the most street power. At the same time, there is no indication that the PPP or the PML-N intend to boycott Senate elections or the upcoming by-elections. There is also said to be a divide within the PML-N on what should happen next, despite the denials on this by Maryam Nawaz. In these circumstances, it is difficult to say what the opposition will do next, or how it will act after January 31. It seems obvious that the government has no plans to step down willingly. There is also no third party negotiator in sight who could try and settle differences and solve the ongoing problems. Things are therefore unclear at the moment. The sense of uncertainty has continued now for many weeks. It is time for either some talk of dialogue and negotiation to move forward or for the opposition to lay all its cards on the table and see which way it can move together.