PDM’s confusion over resignations persists

The decision of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to hold by-elections next month on the seats fallen vacant for one reason or the other has put the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance of leading opposition parties, in a fix whether to participate or boycott them as the timing coincides with the Senate elections and the possible resignations by the MNAs and MPAs affiliated with PDM.

Sources said the PDM high command which is expected to meet in Larkana on the eve of death anniversary of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27 will take the decision. Now, if the PDM parties decide to participate in the Senate elections, the by-elections could help them at least in the case of PPP. At the same time, it also exposes their strategy over the resignations from NA and PAs.

While a by-election in one of Sindh's constituencies is pending for the last one year, the ECP has cited reasons for not holding other by-polls on time. Now, it’s sudden decision to go ahead with the elections has coincided with Prime Minister Imran Khan’s thinking of challenging the PDM to resign, and his decision that he would hold ‘by-elections’ on all those seats.

However, the government may give second thought to its announcement of holding Senate elections a month earlier in February instead of March, 2021 as it may not be possible after the ECP’s decision on the by-elections.

While the PDM parties intend to put pressure on the government from January, they are still undecided about the timing of resignations by the MNAs and MPAs before or after the Senate polls.

Prime Minister Imran Khan, sensing the confusion within the PDM over the resignations, challenged them to resign. “We will hold by-elections in case they resign,” he said in an interview.

Now, it will not be easy for the opposition to withdraw from its stance or review the decision. But both the key parties of the PDM, PML (N) and PPP are well aware of possible defection particularly from the former, as not even 30 percent of MNAs and MPAs have so far submitted their resignations to the party heads.

While the PPP is confident of getting 95 percent resignations once the leadership decides to quit the assemblies, the PML (N) is still not very confident. There is every likelihood that the PDM parties will participate in the by-elections announced by the ECP and subsequently in the Senate elections, and then will decide to resign - first from the national assembly and then from the provincial assemblies.

The decision is expected this week when the PDM leadership will meet. The opposition knew that if they stayed away from the Senate it would tantamount to giving a walkover to the PTI and its allies to take unprecedented edge. The PPP high command has already taken the legal advice from its senior lawyers that suggests even if they resign the Electoral College would not break and the ECP can go ahead with the elections.

Secondly, resignations before the Senate elections could also allow the government through the speaker of national assembly and through three out of four provincial assemblies (except Sindh) to withhold these resignations for a considerable time to ascertain whether the MNAs or MPAs have resigned on their own will and not under duress.

In Pakistan political history, such extreme moves hardly worked. The only successful example is when the then opposition in 1977 decided not to participate in the provincial assembly elections combined with mass agitation. In 1993, when MQM decided to boycott the elections of the national assembly, the elections were held even then. The turnout in urban Sindh was very low and those candidates who could not even thought of winning became the MNAs.

Even in 2014, during the PTI dharna, Imran Khan could not pursue its MPAs from Khyber Pakhtunkhawa to resign and dissolve the KP Assembly. In the end, he settled with the resignations of MNAs, and in that case defection was witnessed also.

The opposition parties experienced the most shocking defeat when they moved a vote of no-confidence against the Chairman Senate and despite majority could not oust him.

So, the PDM is not in a very comfortable position to take such an extreme step and that too at a time when they are not sure of the success of the movement despite confidence of their leadership.

The PDM’s dilemma is that if they decide to participate in the forthcoming by-elections and at the same time take a decision to resign, why any candidate would like to spend millions. It would also be contradictory to its earlier decision.

Interestingly, in both the cases the PTI will gain both politically and morally and PDM will lose, and it could cause serious dent to its basic narrative that this system and assemblies are fraud.

Perhaps, both Maryam Nawaz, vice-President of PML (N), and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari overplayed the decision to boycott since other PDM parties except JUI (F) have not much to say as they hardly have any representation in the assemblies.

The hype created by the leaders of PDM has actually put them in a far more difficult position than bringing the government under pressure.

So, it will be an interesting and decisive week for both the government and the opposition as the PDM leadership will be arriving in PPP’s stronghold Larkana to attend the 13th death anniversary of Benazir Bhutto who was assassinated on December 27, 2007.

It would also be for the first time that the high-powered delegation of PML (N), led by Maryam Nawaz, would be participating in the public meeting at Garhi Khuda Bux. The delegation includes leaders like Pervez Rasheed, Khwaja Saad Rafiq, Ahsan Iqbal and others. Besides, other leaders of PDM parties led by its President Maulana Fazlur Rehman would also speak on the occasion. So far, it has not been decided whether former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would also speak or not.

This in itself would be an important political development. But as far as decision to resign before or after the Senate elections and participation in the by-elections is concerned, confusion persists within the PDM.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO.