The final showdown

The PDM and the government scenario, as the PDM prepares for its rally in Lahore on December 13, seems to be heading towards the final scene. The PDM is focusing hard on its Lahore rally and according to analysts and reports, Maryam Nawaz has been asked by Shahbaz Sharif as well as her father to ensure that the Lahore rally is a success, after which a march to Islamabad followed by possible resignations from assemblies could be on the cards – all this as per the talk going around the political analysts' circles. If members of the PDM do hand in their resignations, one would think the logic would be that they feel the government would just have to give up and opt for elections, instead of undertaking by-elections on such a huge number of seats. That said, there is always the consideration that the PDM is formed of not one or two parties but a number of parties with their own internal compulsions and considerations. Which is why en-masse resignations may be a wish for one party but may not come about as easily as some would think.

There is of course also the question of whether removal of government is more a regression to the politics of the 90s than an evolution in our political realm. The opposition has spoken consistently of various scandals and examples of mismanagement within the government, which they say is badly hitting people. To them, that is reason enough for the government to get going. Again, the question remains whether the PDM can succeed in doing so, and then also follow that up by adhering to the democratic values it is openly advocating at the moment. Pakistan has a long tragic history of governments forcibly ousted through means that are not constitutional, something the past decade of democracy has tried to stem. For the opposition, though, the fact that people are facing more and more hardship and seem eager to act in their favour would be a big plus in pushing this movement ahead now rather than later. The Lahore rally will be extremely significant in this regard. The PML-N is particularly anxious to make a big show in its own hometown, with Nawaz Sharif's reported insistence that there be no talks with the government or the establishment. This can only mean we are headed towards a finale of one kind or the other.

However, in politics – and particularly in Pakistani politics – we never say never and how things will end is still difficult to predict. In the past, long marches to Islamabad have faced challenges of logistics involved in keeping people at an open ground for a prolonged period of time. This time around, even with the threat of mass resignations from assemblies, there is the nagging presence of past scepticism even within the parties that make the PDM. Will the PPP agree to mass resignations? For that matter, will PML-N law-makers opt for them? What about the ever-present 'pressure' to not resign or the precedent of the infamous Senate elections? In the meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is gaining ground. The PDM will no doubt want to act now, when it has steam and support, and not lay low and wait. The next few days may see some more phone calls and meetings between the leaders of the PDM, as well as the government perhaps using a whole new round of crackdowns on opposition leaders ahead of the Lahore jalsa. None of this in any way makes dialogue an option but, as per history, the winds can always change direction.