Dangerous divide

The November 3 US presidential election will be the first one whose outcome is already scary and uncertain, not in terms of who will win, but whether the result will be accepted, or a new wave of intensified conflict will begin, ending up in the US Supreme Court.

Elections are meant to give legitimacy to an elected majority to rule and to put an end to electoral rivalry. It is seen as a democratic method to resolve conflict in societies. This US presidential election does not present the traditional case though. President Trump has repeatedly expressed his unwillingness to concede defeat if he fails to win. He will accept results only if he wins.

During a presidential debate when moderator Chris Wallace asked Trump if he would denounce white supremacists Trump, instead of condemning them, told them to ‘step back and stand by’. A week later the FBI announced a case against eight white supremacists of a plot to kidnap Michigan’s democrat governor Gretchen Whitman. Michigan is the same state where during the peak of current pandemic Trump called on his supporters to ‘liberate Michigan’. The plot to kidnap governor surfaced during that time.

America appears to be at a dangerous crossroads. Trump’s hysterical anguish expressed everyday in his tweets and frequent appearances on Fox News are fueling the divide in the country. The economic slowdown continues to badly affect millions of people, with 11 million people still on unemployment allowance. Economically, it will be hard for states to continue to pay so many people unemployment benefits.

Even rich American states like California and Virginia need federal assistance. The Democrat-led House passed a pandemic relief bill of over $3 trillion, but the Republican-led Senate refused to take it up. Due to economic stress millions are people are on the verge of losing their rented homes due to failure to pay rent.

It is bewildering to see the low level of discourse during this election campaign. It is not policy which is at the center of debate, but the character of the leadership which is under angry attacks.

Polls from the battle-ground states give Democrats cautious hope of possible victory on November 3, while the Trump campaign is hoping to gain more ground by creating drama on the debate stage.

The 2016 polls betrayed Hillary Clinton, therefore polls are scary for both sides. Trump does not believe them and the Democrats had a different experience in the past. However, what is different this time is that Trump is now a tested candidate and not a new entry anymore. Above all, if the Congressional mid-term elections, state legislatures and gubernatorial elections are any indication the Republicans have lost, and in a big way. In two key battle-ground states in the mid-west – Wisconsin and Michigan – which Trump won by margin of 73,000 votes, Republicans have lost all elections in both states.

The worst fears of the Republicans were recently expressed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz who saw possibly a ‘bloodbath for Republicans’ to a scale of post-Watergate back in the 1970s. Such fears are not farfetched. At stake are not just the battle-ground six states, but the very states which have been considered red-states and safe for the Republicans. For example, Georgia: which Democrats have not won since Jimmy Carter became president back in the late 1970s. Trump carried this state with margin of 230,000 votes; new Hispanic registered voters in the state are over 250,000, and two years ago Democrat nominee for governor’s slot Stacy Abrahams lost the election in an extremely close contest – to the extent that results were delayed, but later she conceded.

The second key state to watch is Arizona. In 2016, Trump carried this state by 2.5 points. Three reasons should be seen while considering whether this deep red state could go with the blue wave. First, the Democrats won the Senate seat. Second, this is the first time Spanish-speaking voters make up 25 percent of eligible voters. And third, well-respected Republican Senator late John McCain’s wife, family and a former Senator Jeffrey Flake not support Trump, and along with two dozen Republican members of Congress has endorsed Joe Biden.

The third state to keep an eye on is Florida where Mike Bloomberg has invested millions of dollars to help Black voters pay their court fines in order to be eligible to vote. Hundreds of thousands of under privileged voters in the state have faced a systematic voter suppression, in some cases inmates completed their imprisonment but did not have enough money to pay for court fee/fines and thus under a discriminatory law were disqualified to vote. Rights groups have eagerly pursued the case for decades; it is likely to have an impact on overall turnout in the state. Historically Democrats win when there is higher turnout. Obama’s victory happened because of that reason.

Trump’s support base has not expanded, and major vote blocks like suburban women, Blacks, Spanish-speaking voters, Asians, Indians and women in general do not endorse him. The Democrats are building their electoral win on a broad-based coalition of workers, women and minority rights groups, including the Black Lives Matter movement, former servicemen and white men with college degrees. Biden does not appear to be desperate; he is calm because he knows Trump does not have a path to win – he does.

Email: mush.rajpar@gmail.com

Twitter @mushrajpar