Covid-19 pandemic scenario: Situation under control but risk of spread haunts

ISLAMABAD: The risk of an unusual spike in COVID-19 cases is not yet over in Pakistan and will stay till a vaccine or medicine is invented.

Experts say the coronavirus is not totally over as virus cases are still being reported in Pakistan but acknowledge that the situation is far better compared to before.

The COVID-19 pandemic still exists, Science & Technology Task Force Chairman Dr Ataur Rehman told The News while answering questions. “The second, third or even fourth wave of the pandemic is not ruled out.”

He said that the improvement in the conditions was due to social distancing and the previous targeted lockdown as advised to the government by the experts. “The official strategy of introducing smart lockdown and release of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and ensuring their strict adherence have been result-oriented.”

Another expert Dr Kaleem Bashir agreed with Dr Ataur Rehman and said that authorities have to be watchful and careful all the time as any laxity would create a difficult scenario. “My personal experience of handling the coronavirus patients is that their number has drastically gone down, which is very encouraging. But I continue to recommend to the people to avoid parties and keep observing social distancing because the situation may aggravate due to their negligence,” he said.

Dr Kaleem said that he usually found at least ten percent patients among hundreds of tests he used to supervise daily before, but now the percentage has become negligible. Like many Pakistani and international experts, he too was puzzled over the marked positive plunge. “Our hospitals were about to be overwhelmed by the emerging state of affairs, but the conditions are now entirely different. In the changed circumstances, the number of medicos, hit by the disease, who are treating the COVID-19 patients, has also significantly dropped.”

Dr Ataur Rehman said opening of schools carried the risk of hike in the COVID-19 cases, therefore, there is a serious need to let these institutions resume the educational activities only systematically and progressively, meaning that different areas be chosen at one time for the purpose. “The children may recover from the disease, but will affect their parents and grandparents, which will be more dangerous. The situation should be closely observed for at least three months before going for the opening of all educational institutions.”

He noted that there were fears that the COVID-19 cases would go up due to Muharramul Harram gatherings and its impact would come after one week or ten days. The key to solution of the problem is to keep social distancing intact without any carelessness.

The expert said that the state-of-the-art Jamilur Rehman Centre for Genome Research at the Karachi University has concluded that the virus was constantly mutating, changing its shape. “At times, its lethality reduces while at others it intensifies. The virus has not gone away.”

Dr Ataur Rehman said that because of mutation one vaccine may become redundant and have to be developed afresh. The virus can spread like fire. He said the existence of the risk of coronavirus was evident in several countries. However, he said, in contrast, Pakistan’s conditions have been much better. Compared to India and Brazil, the expert said, Pakistan’s situation is tremendously improved. Even in Cuba, curfew has to be clamped in the wake of spread of the pandemic, he pointed out.

The experts believed the government figures about the number of patients and deaths struck by the disease and said the death toll can’t be concealed. Interestingly, as the number of COVID-19 affected people has remarkably gone down according to all accounts, the government continues to claim an increased number of daily tests, around 24,000, a figure that was not even cited during the height of the disease. People had been complaining about the lack of testing facilities at the government level.

It has been widely noted that people at large have stopped wearing masks and observing social distancing despite the government’s persistent instructions and appeal not to give up these precautions. The shopping centres are also crowded like before. Most citizens are of firm opinion that the coronavirus was absolutely over.