Covid-19 pandemic: Positivity rate declines to 6pc from 31pc in one month, say experts

LAHORE: The Corona Expert Advisory Group (CEAG) has claimed that COVID-19 positivity rate has declined to an average 6 per cent in mid-July, compared to 31pc prevalence in June, which has considerably improved the situation.

“However, in order to avoid the second wave of COVID-19, citizens must be very careful with the observation of standard operating procedures (SOPs) and precautionary measures,” warned the experts during a briefing of the Technical Working Group (TWG) on Tuesday.

Considering the downward trajectory of coronavirus cases in Punjab, CEAG has indicated that Out-Patient Departments (OPDs) of public sector hospitals will soon be opened. Meanwhile, 62 more died in country from complications related to COVID-19 taking the toll to 5,366 in the country. Total number of cases has reached 255.056.

CEAG Chairman Prof Dr Mahmood Shaukat said that after the OPDs are opened, people must adopt extra caution keeping in mind huge crowd would be visiting OPDs after long time; therefore, it is advisable to avoid visiting hospitals without any serious health issue. “The hospitals are not in the position to accommodate all patients at once,” he said.

Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department (P&SHD) Secretary Capt (retd) Muhammad Usman said that, as on July 14, 2020, there were 87,492 reported positive cases of COVID-19. In the last 24 hours, 449 cases were diagnosed positive and 13 deaths occurred, which raised the total number of deaths to 2,026 in Punjab. The number of patients on ventilators is declining so the overall situation of COVID-19 is satisfactory. “We have less symptomatic and asymptomatic patients,” he said, however, adding that the people needed to be very careful vis-à-vis upcoming celebrations on Eidul Azha, especially considering the previous gatherings on Eidul Fitr, which resulted in spike of virus.

“We are getting these results due to observing precautions and following the SOPs and disseminating the information through different mediums. Same better position can be seen in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) as cases decreasing on daily basis.”

While clarifying the confusions whether cases are declining or government is hiding the situation, Prof Mahmood Shaukat said the cases of COVID-19 are decreasing, and this ratio is based on comprehensive data collected through different hospitals. For maintaining this declining trend of COVID-19 cases, we should focus on precautionary measures as we are promoting from the very first day which includes usage of mask, maintaining social distancing and avoid gatherings.

For example, he said, people in America ignored the precautionary measures which resulted in the second wave especially in California and West Coast, though earlier cases were declining, but later on another spike of coronavirus increased the cases rapidly. “This spike resulting in increase of cases is due to ignorant behaviours and non-following of the SOPs and precautionary measures,” he said, and emphasised it to be a foremost duty of every person to follow the SOPs.

“If we talk about the antibody test”, he said, “earlier we were considering PCR tests, now conducting antibody tests due to its cost-effectiveness. He said that it was really good that patients in the ICUs are getting discharged. We have changed the discharge criteria for COVID-19 patients and isolation criteria is reviewed and upgraded, which resulted in less PCR tests. “We learnt a lot from our own and international experiences,” he added.

He said that experts used Actemra on different patients and working on performa to derive our conclusions and we will update about the data collection and its results. To answer the question about the new lockdown implementation related to Eidul Azha, Prof Mahmood said, “We cannot tell you right away about the lockdown; it all depends on the prevailing situation.

“We are conducting tests on lockdown areas and will update on it soon. We have the same capacity of testing, and decline in testing is due to less PCR as we are focusing on other strategies. “Now we have fewer patients due to revised discharge policy of COVID-19 and contact tracing policy; so this decline in cases may be referred to these changes.”

He said the policies of shrouding, funeral prayers and all related aspects are revised, in which we are working efficiently about the whole process. As per revised guidelines, the funerals could be attended with proper social distancing and following the revised funeral guidelines as the body could be covered in plastic bag instead of wooden coffin.

Answering questions about Kawasaki disease, Prof Mahmood suggested that it is prevalent in children as after-effects of coronavirus; therefore, we should be careful about the post-effects of coronavirus.

He also said that Section 144 has been implemented for Eidul Azha. The cattle markets will be established as per notification of the department, and following of the SOPs is a must for all those involved in cattle markets including buyer, seller and management. The deputy commissioners will make sure to get the persons tested before entering the cattle market and before leaving their respective district.

Regarding a question about increase in number of deaths due to coronavirus, CEAG member Rafia Haider said the number of burials was less this year due to decrease in traffic incidents and other criminal/law activities.