Can Ayaz Sadiq retain his seat?

Imran Khan is an amazing character and used his cricketing skill quite effectively in politics as well i.e. spirit to fight even if you are losing the match.
The kind of opposition he has given to PML-N has made the ruling party nervous. He has now fully recovered from the shock of Judicial Commission’s finding and has once again brought politics to the street.
NA-122 is a crucial seat for his party and victory here on October 11 can bring a new life to the party, but defeat will be more shocking for him than at the time of JC report, which had rejected organised rigging allegations.
One thing is certain and that is the possible changing political scenario. If people voted in favor of “change” it will give Imran and PTI a real boost in coming weeks and months.
People by and large vote for status quo in the “by-elections” and thus the ruling party has the advantage. So, if they voted for the PTI in the stronghold of PML-N it may not be good news for Sharifs and PML-N.
The Election Commission of Pakistan looks more independent amid constant pressure from Imran. Some of its decision even surprised the opposition but it has clear a lot of misconception.
Imran’s demands like the deployment of army both inside and outside the polling stations and installation of cameras have been accepted. Therefore, there is little possibility that he would not accept the result in case his party lost the election.
The PML-N should blame themselves for this situation. In the last two years, they have increased opponents and made no new friends. Even in this case, it appears as its leaders have fallen in Imran’s trap.
From a simple “by-election” Imran with his constant presence has made it “Election of the Year,” knowing well that he has challenged the PML-N stronghold. This constant activity keeps his workers, particularly the youth, charged.
Now it remains to be seen if the former speaker National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq will retain his record of winning from NA-122 or PTI leader Aleem Khan would cause the major upset.
Turnout will be crucial for both the parties, particularly for PTI. So, if the voters turn out in large number and vote for Imran, Aleem stands a chance.
But, on the other hand PML-N leaders are so confident that they have even decided not to bring any new face as speaker and the National Assembly session has not been called since Mr. Sadiq was unseated.
The seat traditionally belongs to the PML-N, but the fact remains that in 2013 the margin between Sadiq and Imran Khan had narrowed down to just over 8,000 votes. It is the same constituency where Imran got himself injured and thus also got an additional sympathy vote.
Imran is not a candidate but has a lot of trust and confidence in Aleem despite difference of opinion about him in his own party.
So, Imran wants him to win in order to silence his critics within and outside the party. Aleem despite his reputation is very much active in politics and Imran’s presence has given him additional support.
Imran is again visiting his constituency tomorrow, which is the last day of campaign and this has made Aleem even more confident to upset Ayaz and Sharifs. Can he do it is a big question? He wants to ensure voters should turn up in large number on the polling day.
On the other hand, Ayaz Sadiq, a soft-spoken person has been active in politics from this very constituency for long. Therefore, he knows the dynamics of his constituency.
However, in the absence of Sharif brothers, who could not campaign for him because of restrictions from the Election Commission of Pakistan, Federal Minister for Railways Khawaja Saad Rafiq and Abid Sher Ali besides Hamza Shahbaz to ensure Sadiq’s victory.
Khawaja, whose own seat of NA-125, still awaits decision from the Supreme Court on his appeal against the decision of the Election Tribunal, has an old political worker and also knows political tricks because of his background of student politics.
What is most surprising was the role of the Pakistan Peoples Party. It has nominated a young party worker from a middle class family, Amir Hasan.
But, where is the PPP leadership and why it has not taken the election seriously.
The PPP still has over 20,000 to 30,000 votes in this constituency. If nothing else, the campaign could have been used as the launching pad for the revival of PPP in Lahore.
If not Bilawal, at least few central leaders like Ch. Aitzaz Ahsan, Qamar Zaman Kaira, Manzoor Wattoo and others could have addressed corner meetings. Listening to him in Hamid Mir’s show, I found him quite a decent and political person. How much vote PPP will get would not only reflect his performance but where PPP stand, today.
Coming back to Imran and his political tactics, which is creating problems for PML in Punjab, he has turned a contest between Ayaz and Aleem Khan into a contest between Imran and Nawaz.
Defeat of Ayaz would be the biggest set back for Shari’s in Lahore and one thing is certain that Imran may not stop here. His eyes are still on Islamabad and another “Long March” is still on the card. He can also demand early hearing of appeal in NA-125, Lahore and NA-154, Lodhran.
But the defeat of PTI in NA-122 would have adverse effect on party’s chance in the local bodies elections in Punjab, later this month. Secondly, he would also lose his case that Ayaz had won because of rigged elections in 2013.
Imran was the most depressed person when the high powered Judicial Commission, JC rejected his long awaited claim that 2013 elections were “rigged.”
But, he recovered from the loss and the decisions of the Election Tribunals, on the three seats which he had questioned from the day one gave him a new spirit. Defeat of his most trusted man in NA-122 would further increase his depression.
Therefore, he has fully charged his party to secure victory for Aleem Khan, who himself has claimed that he would defeat Ayaz by huge margin of at least 30,000 votes. But, even if he wins by the margin of few hundred he could still create history.
One thing is certain and that is Imran will not sit despite setbacks and will not let Sharifs relax. His eyes are still on the next general election. In Jamaat-e-Islami, he has found a partner and his party has reached a long term accord.
The JI will be the main beneficiary, as they will look for electoral benefit from Imran’s popularity particularly in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhawa.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.