Ghani vs Abdullah: marching to bloodshed or peace?

(Sitara -e -Shujat, Nashan-e-Imtiaz)

I have met Dr Ashraf Ghani many times during the government of President Hamid Karzai. He basically settled in Dub and ran cloth business and always found him well educated and intelligent. He performed well during his tenure as National Security Adviser and could make many friends within Pakistan and abroad. Former president Hamid Karzai and president Asif Ali Zardari were on visit to Turkey to attend the trilateral summit on Afghanistan. The agenda of the summit mainly included peace, stability and reconciliation in Afghanistan and economic cooperation among the three countries. Shah Mahmood Qureshi as then foreign minister and I myself as the interior minister were accompanying our president Asif Ali Zardari during the visit. We had a good informal post lunch discussions with Dr Ashraf Ghani wherein I made out that he is going to be the next candidate for the president of Afghanistan. I found him tactful and polite but obstinate man.

I having meetings with Abdullah Abdullah; once in Germany and for second time and last time in Kabul, Afghanistan. He is also soft spoken like Ghani but highly aggressive whereas he is educated in Indian and holds good public relations worldwide but like Ghani he is also a stubborn and obstinate person. By nature he is not the kind of man who will easily share power with anyone. The purpose of comparison of two Afghan political figures is that the future of Afghanistan depends on their personality traits. Mohammad Haneef Atmar is the only Minister who is flexible and apparently close to Taliban for being from Laghman Province of Afghanistan and Pashtun and it is for this reason that Dr Ghani has included in him in his cabinet.

Let us see what role he will play in the near future. It is also an important factor that Abdullah shares good relations with Panjshir Taliban being from Panjshir. Most probably, Abdullah Abdullah can play Panjshir card but he needs the Pakhtoon Taliban and Pakhtoon’ support in parliament. According to my assessment the downfall of Dr Ghani has started in fact by his hand shake with Abdullah. It is obvious that Abdullah is more effective on Taliban if he joins hand with Haneef Atmar and both can emerge stronger and they may win the support of USA through its highly capable envoy Zalmay Khalilzad who has already done major progress during recent Afghan peace process with the help of Pakistan. Most likely Abdullah Abdullah may mange major factions of Taliban. It is hard fact that neither peace nor smooth running of government is possible without Taliban though Taliban would like to grab the major share in the power for which USA seems to have no objection. Abdullah could not defeat Ghani politically but he might defeat him through his influence on Taliban.

Both President Ashraf Ghani and Abdallah Abdullah will never be on one page being both stubborn and obstinate.

Major corruption proceeds of Taliban, former and present rulers of Afghanistan are parked in Dubai. It is interesting to know that both Afghan Taliban and political leaders have common investors residing in Dubai. I foresee Abdullah Abdulla emerging as the next president of Afghanistan provided he plays his cards rightly but I do not see the next transformation of power peacefully and I foresee another phase of bloodshed based on past history and rivalry existed among Afghan Tribes, different ethnic and religious groups, Taliban, political and administrative fragments. The 37,135,635 population of Afghanistan is composed of different ethnic groups including Tajik, Pashtun, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimak, Sayyid, Turkmen, Baloch and a few others. The Government is Afghanistan is run by NDS duly tutored by India and peace in Afghanistan does not suit to India therefore India under PM Narednra Modi can go to any extent to get Abdullah Abdullah into power to fulfil its regional nefarious designs.

I pray for peaceful Afghanistan as peace in Afghanistan is not only in the best interest of the Pakistan but whole region and Pakistan has always played a positive role to restore peace in Afghanistan. I wish bloodshed never happen in Afghanistan again but keeping in mind, the trait of Taliban and their past bloodshed, it looks that the country is again heading towards a battle of power as all opponents will be trying to outsmart each other. The war-torn history of Afghanistan is full of tragedies and most of the heads of state were murdered. Afghanistan President Sardar Mohammed Daoud is overthrown and murdered in a coup and it marked the beginning of political upheaval in Afghanistan that resulted in intervention by Soviet troops within two years. While referring to the twentieth century alone, almost every head of state is murdered that include President Habibullah Khan, Nur Muhammad Taraki, Hafizullah Amin and Dr Najeeb Ullah.

Note: Opinions expressed are solely my own and not necessarily to reflect the views or opinions of my party.

The writer is former interior minister of Pakistan, Chairman Senate Standing Committee on Interior and Chairman of Think Tank "Global Eye". He tweets @SenRehmanMalik and can be reached at rmalik1212@gmail.com.