When will coronavirus end?

ISLAMABAD: A Singaporean university has predicted the end of coronavirus in June this year. Taking this prediction true, Advisor to Prime Minister on Health Dr Zafar Mirza echoed the same on the day findings were made public by the university. This was not only good news; it was the news people have yearned to hear. But is this estimate credible? The jury is still out. To answer this question, we must know about the data used to reach this conclusion.

For a background, data-driven innovation lab of Singapore University of Technology and Design carried out analysis of all the pandemic-hit countries; Pakistan included. A model named SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) was been used to estimate the life cycle of pandemic. Ninety-nine percent coronavirus, according to the findings, will have predominately been eliminated by June this year throughout the world; country-specific (corona) dates of its end have slight variations ranging from days to a few months. Hundred percent elimination will be possible by December 2020, according to this study.

If only it were all so simple. The study has hypothesized, it appears, that people once recovered aren’t prone to re-infection and thus can be issued “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” for going back to work as was deliberated by some governments. There is no evidence, according to World Health Organization (WHO), to suggest that those who have recovered and have anti-bodies are protected from second infection. Also, the study has not taken into account the preventive behavior of population required to stop its second wave. Japan’s Island, Hokkaido, is a living example. First it set an example for other parts of Japan by observing strict lockdown that virtually eliminated corona virus. As the island was reopened, second wave followed that forced it to lockdown again.

Other countries like Germany which is planning to reopen is cautiously weighing its decision amid Chancellor Angela Merkel’s alarm that “let’s not gamble away what we’ve achieved and risk a setback.” For record, Germany is among those few countries which have done an exemplary job of managing pandemic and earned plaudits from WHO. Instead of opening in one-go, according a German virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit, restrictions should be lifted “step by step and see what happens.” China and South Korea, two other countries hit in the beginning, have seen resurgence; also Singapore has experienced second wave with the emergence of 800 cases.

Other than curve flattening, heat-wave is being touted a factor that could dry out corona virus but there is no evidence so far to suggest that it does. Consider this turns out true, what will happen after summer? Another option could be developing herd immunity. What is it? It is the level of resistance in a population towards corona virus but that status is achievable only after 60% of the total population (120 million in case of Pakistan) is infected first. Spreading infection for this purpose isn’t without risk as health system of not only Pakistan but of any developed country is not good enough to deal with health emergency of this level. Britain initially planned to use that route for fighting off coronavirus but abandoned after warning by health experts that it could lead to a disaster of disproportionate level.

Coronavirus has left the entire world nervous. Scientists are still trying to fully understand it. Many known unknowns remain to be explored. Making an informed decision requires greater understanding of the enemy the world faces. Until then, only speculations will thrive. When the world returns to normalcy remains an oft-asked question. However, returning to business as usual is, according to conservative estimate, more than a year away from today.

Prof. Chris Whitty, British government’s chief medical officer has urged social distancing would need to be in place “for really quite a long period of time” at least until the end of year. Graeme Codrington, a South African futurist and strategy consultant, has predicted that social distancing will remain in place at least until the mid of next year. What’s social distancing? Researchers have defined it as a practice wherein “all households reduce contact outside household, school or workplace by 75%.” That means life will not return to normalcy immediately.

In other words, world needs vaccine for coronavirus before it re-opens. Without vaccine, risks are rife. How much time it takes? Fingers are crossed. It is at experimental stage at the moment. If Bill Gates is to believe, vaccine will take at least 14 to 18 months before it hits to market. Considering that time line is accurately estimated, next question is which country will receive it first. Obviously, the first recipient will be the people of country which has produced it.

That may follow the countries who are either rich enough to bid high (as happened in the purchase of PPEs) or the ones vulnerable enough to necessitate urgency on humanitarian grounds. In short, vaccine will take a couple of years to reach every country. Until then, we will have to live in a world where non-essential travel and socialization are prohibited. Nurturing false hopes will not help. Instead, the government should carry out realistic analysis in order to plan economic activities accordingly.