Extended lockdown

As was becoming inevitable to everyone able to use even a modicum of rationale and reason, the lockdown aimed to prevent the spread of Covid-19 has been extended till May 9. The announcement was made by the prime minister after a meeting of the Command and Control Centre. PM Imran Khan, who has consistently opposed lockdowns in the past, and has lashed out at the Sindh government for enforcing them, has said that a track and trace system will be put in place, with the help of the armed forces, to ensure this is a ‘smart lockdown’. This would mean that only areas with high concentrations of Covid-19 would be shut down entirely and others allowed to function as normal. This may sound like a good option. The issue is that we are not quite sure, because of the lack of testing, into which alleys, which towns, which villages, Covid-19 has taken root and how many are affected. The WHO has predicted that Pakistan could be confronted with 200,000 coronavirus cases by July this year, and other experts have pointed out that the trajectory in the country currently looks very similar to the US, the UK and, in the past, Italy and Spain. Since then, Italy and Spain have been able to begin flattening the curve. But this was through stringent lockdowns.

A smart lockdown would need to be better organized and better planned. We should keep in mind that the tracing, tracking and quarantine programme used in countries like Singapore was backed by a highly developed system of surveillance cameras located on every street and in every building. This allowed any person a corona-positive individual had come into contact with to be asked to observe voluntary quarantine for 15 days. Wuhan used roughly the same method. Whether we can develop such systems, whether our people have the discipline and responsibility to observe days of voluntary quarantine often in crowded houses, whether entire families will need to be quarantined are questions that are yet to be answered. For the moment, we can only hope this system will work. What the impact of mass congregational prayers in mosques in most parts of the country -- apart from maybe parts of Sindh where the provincial government has been more diligent -- will be is still to be tested while the ability of the government to enforce its own regulations may prove to be most significant of all.

The government should also take appropriate measure to avert the creeping economic meltdown if the severity of the disease intensifies in the coming weeks and we end up extending the lockdown yet another time beyond May 9. Fortunately, Pakistan has been able to secure some more funding from foreign sources which should enable the government to offer much-needed economic support to the most needy in the country. The next budget preparation should also start in earnest, as that can be initiated online and by conducting video conferencing. An extended and stricter lockdown should not mean that the government officers responsible for budget preparation can take it lightly. There should be clear guidelines from relevant ministries to all their employees about how to go about their tasks during the lockdown. This coming budget-making exercise will be a test case for this government to show what lessons it has learnt from the pandemic. The extended lockdown should also serve as a time of reflection for the decision-makers to allocate more resources to development especially to health and education, without which we cannot fight any pandemic.