Next few weeks critical: doctors

KARACHI: Terming the coming four weeks critical in trying to overcome the coronavirus pandemic in the country, some top doctors have demanded the federal and provincial governments to enforce a strict country-wide lockdown for another month.

The eminent physicians of the country warned that if preventive measures were not taken, the number of COVID-19 cases could reach up to 70,000 by next month (May 15). We estimate that as many as 7,000 critical cases would require ventilators and the country does not have more than 3,500 ventilators, they claimed.

“We are expecting easing of the lockdown and this can prove disastrous for Pakistan. If we don’t enforce the lockdown in letter and spirit, the projected number of Coronavirus cases can rise up to 70,000 by May 15. As many as 7,000 people would require life support but our country does not have the capacity to cater to even half of those patients,” said Dr. Saad Khalid Niaz, an eminent physician and gastroenterologist, while addressing a news conference along with several other doctors at the Karachi Press Club on Wednesday. They demanded banning all types of crowds and congregations, including those at supermarkets, shopping malls and mosques, saying people should avoid gathering at any place at least for one and a half to two months, so that transmission of coronavirus could be minimized as much as possible and asked the Ulema and people to offer prayers at homes.

They also demanded complete closure of shopping malls, supermarkets and stores and all other places where people gather at one place, saying this is the time when we should strictly implement the lockdown to ease the burden on the country’s fragile healthcare system.

Accompanied by Prof. Abdul Bari Khan, CEO Indus Hospital Karachi, Prof Misbahul Aziz, former Central president Pakistan Islamic Medical Association, PIMA, Dr. Qaiser Sajjad, Secretary General, Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), Prof Sohail Akhter and Prof. Atif Hafeez Siddiqui from PIMA, Prof. Muhammad Azeemuddin, President PIMA Karachi, Dr. Imran Hamid and Dr. Saad Khalid Niaz said that as soon as lockdown was eased in Sindh, an exponential growth in COVID-19 cases was seen during the last five days.

“The week-wise data suggests an exponential increase in the number of patients. We have seen a rapid increase of 2,692 patients in just five days when the lockdown was eased (6,772 on April 16, to 9,464 on April 21). This is very alarming and we fear the situation to be getting out of control of doctors and the government,” Dr. Saad Khalid Niaz claimed, and asked the people to follow the advice and instructions of doctors instead of listening to rumours and myths. Claiming that around 162 healthcare providers were affected with Coronavirus in Sindh alone, Dr. Saad said COVID-19 is a medical problem and only doctors and physicians understand it the best. “Myth of our people being more immune to the disease has turned the situation worse. If we ignored the warnings now, the patients would be lying in the corridors of hospitals,” he added.

Chief Executive Officer of the Indus Health Network Prof. Abdul Bari Khan said 80 percent of the isolation beds at the ICUs of a few hospitals treating COVID-19 patients were already occupied and disclosed that there was no space available for more patients at Indus, Ojha and Aga Khan Hospitals for the COVID-19 patients. “If we failed to appreciate the gravity of the situation and continued to move around without safety precaution, I’m afraid there would be an exponential growth in the number of cases and high mortality in the days to come. We appeal to you to follow our advice, follow the lockdown and do not venture out during May to remain safe and prevent others also,” Prof. Abdul Bari Khan added.

Bari said about 175 stable patients were admitted to the Field Isolation Center at Expo Center with a capacity of 200, which will overflow with patients. "If this continues, we fear hospitals would begin turning away patients and God forbid in the comings days, the hospitals may have to pick and choose patients for ventilators on basis of who has better chances of survival,” he warned.

“In fact, severity is greater than we think. Healthcare workers (HCW) have contracted Covid-19 itself. More than 162 HCW tested positive in Sindh. Many more others have been quarantined. This rapid reduction in manpower is already hurting the management of patients,” he stated. Deploring that neither they have any cure at present nor the capacity to fight this disease, Prof. Bari said the only way to save lives is to slowdown the number of cases by implementing social distancing and strict lockdown for the next few weeks.

Prof. Atif Hafeez Sidiqui of PIMA demanded strict enforcement of lockdown and prevention of all sorts of congregations to contain the rapid spread of Covid–19 and said while the government should perform its responsibility by implementing the lockdown, the general public should cooperate by remaining indoors while the business community should bear the hardship for a few more weeks by keeping their stores and shopping centers closed except those of basic necessities. Sidiqui asked the Ulema of call sects to endorse the need to keep the common people away from congregations in mosques as that alone can save lives. Referring to other Islamic countries, he said most have closed the mosques including Haramain, for the time being. Taraveeh can be offered at home and similarly the regular prayers and those of Jumma must be limited to be attended by the mosque staff only, he added.