The good and bad news as corona continues to devaste mankind

LAHORE: As a maze and labyrinth of coronavirus numbers and graphic illustrations depict a complex state of affairs in this midst of this pandemic, provision of clean information is vital, and then only authentic fact-based views from certified epidemiologists, immunologists, mathematicians, media houses and policy experts are badly needed at a juncture when the whole mankind in search of a good news.

One such "good news" came from the London-based international weekly newspaper, "Economist", which recently viewed that if millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggested.

In one of its articles titled "Why a study showing that Covid-19 is everywhere is good news", this media outlet printed in magazine-format and published digitally, had further opined: "The global economy is expected to shrink by 3% this year. Poor countries are especially ill-equipped to deal with the sharp contraction. Back in January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was predicting that the global economy would grow at a "sluggish" pace of 3.3% in 2020. How rosy that now seems."

Enjoying a combined print and digital circulation of 1.6 million, this journal had also cited as reference the latest World Economic Outlook (a twice-yearly report) published on April 14.

The "Economist" had written: "The IMF forecasts that output will shrink by 3% this year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. If the fund is anywhere near the mark, this would be the first decline since 2009. The downturn this time will be much deeper. In 2009, during the global financial crisis, world GDP fell by only -0.1%, as emerging economies continued to expand. This time the IMF reckons that a large share of countries - accounting for about 70% of global GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms - will fall into recession. Output in advanced economies is expected to shrink by 6.1% in 2020; in poorer countries it is forecast to fall by 1%."

It also raised an important point on deaths in New York, the city hit worst on Earth by Covid-19.

The "Economist" asserts: "Deaths from cardiac arrests have surged in New York City. Officials are likely to be underestimating how many may have died from Covid-19. No city in America has been hit by Covid-19 as hard as New York. By April 12, according to official statistics, more than 6,000 people had died. This is over a quarter of all deaths in the whole country. There is some cause for hope: new reported covid-19 cases and deaths in the city both appear to be falling. Modelling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research group at the University of Washington, suggests that New York State’s Covid-19 epidemic may have passed its peak. But when the final death toll is reported, it may be bigger than current data would suggest."

Meanwhile, CNN's host, Fareed Zakaria, has also looked at the effects of Covid-19 across the globe and examines the need for extensive and ongoing testing in his programme "Fareed Zakaria GPS".

Fareed Rafiq Zakaria, who also writes a weekly paid column for "The Washington Post", had highlighted the over-estimated Covid-19 numbers and projections of the prestigious Stanford University, American President Donald Trump and his Health advisor, Dr Anthony Fauci, who has also been hinting that disruptions to daily life might possibly last for years.

The CNN had discussed how lack of understanding of the virus under review had led to faulty predictions that kept changing week after week.

At a point when the number of coronovirus patients around the globe has crossed the two million mark and the number of deaths registered due to the pandemic have nearly touched the 1,28,000 figure, with around 52,000 critical cases, by Wednesday evening, an American nonprofit organization "The Student Free Press Association", which runs a news website called "The College Fix", had posted startling views of veteran scholar of Epidemiology.

Knut Wittkowski, the epidemiologist, has warned that the ongoing lockdowns throughout the United States and the rest of the world are almost certainly just prolonging the coronavirus outbreak rather than doing anything to truly mitigate it.

The US News website "The College Fix" writes: "Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in an interview that people should be permitted to lead normal lives, while vulnerable should be sheltered till the danger subsides."

The website quoted the epidemiologist as saying: "So, it's very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated. You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians - anybody."

By the way, before we conclude, New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, is giving most Western politicians a master-class in crisis leadership.

According to a Kiwi epidemiologist, Prof Michael Baker, New Zealand has had the most decisive and strongest lockdown in the world at the moment and the country is a huge standout as the only Western country that’s got an elimination goal" for Covid-19, primarily through an excellent enforcement of the lockdown.

Premier Jacinda Ardern, according to many websites, has made it possible through her communication skills and art of public motivation during the course of her March 23 press conference, which was followed by a long session with media, where she had answered toughest queries pertaining to her decision to lock down the country.

In freely acknowledging the challenges her people faced by staying at homes, from disrupted family and work lives, to people unable to attend the funerals of their loved ones, Prime Minister Jacinda repeatedly showed empathy about what was being asked of us.

She has been using daily televised briefings and regular Facebook live sessions to clearly frame the key questions and issues requiring attention.

A poll had suggested that 80 per cent New Zealanders had endorsed her lockdown decision and response to Covid-19.