Beware the Ides of March

The expression ‘Beware the Ides of March’ was used in renowned playwright William Shakespeare’s epic Julius Caesar. The line is the soothsayer’s message to Julius Caesar, warning him of his death. The term didn’t originate with William Shakespeare.

The earliest Roman calendar, which comprised ten months beginning with Martius (March), was believed to have been created by King Romulus around 753 B.C. At that time, dates were expressed in relation to the lunar phase of the month using three markers: Kalends (Kal), Nones (Non) and Ides (Id).

The first phase of the moon, the new moon, was denoted by Kalends and signified the first day of the month; the first quarter moon fell on either the fifth or seventh day of the month and was referred to as Nones; the full moon fell on either the 13th or 15th day of the month and was referred to as Ides. The ides of March — March 15 — initially marked the first full moon of a new year.

During the late Roman Republic, a new year’s festival was held on the ides of March in which people would gather a mile outside of Rome on the Via Flaminia by the banks of the Tiber River. Participants celebrated with food, wine and music and offered sacrifices to the Roman deity Anna Perenna for a happy and prosperous new year. In 46 B.C., after consulting with the Alexandrian astronomer Sosigenes, Julius Caesar reformed the Roman calendar by adding ten days to the 355-day year, named after him as the Julian Calendar, instituting January 1 as the first day of the new year (beginning in 45 B.C.) and introducing a leap year every four years. Shortly thereafter, he was granted the title Dictator Perpetuus or “dictator for life.” Concerned with Caesar’s increasing power and monarchical leanings, a group of Roman senators stabbed the ruler to death on March 15, 44 B.C.—forever linking the ides of March with the assassination of Julius Caesar. This year, the Ides of March has affected the world severely with the advent of COVID-19.

The deadly Coronavirus is receding in China but has spread rapidly in the US, Europe and the Middle East. World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 as a pandemic pointing to the over 156,509 cases of the coronavirus illness in over 144 countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread.

Researchers have been busy predicting the extent of damage through COVID-19. The Australian National University (ANU) has examined seven scenarios of how the COVID-19 outbreak might affect the world’s wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity. Four of the seven scenarios in the paper examine the impact of COVID-19 spreading outside China, ranging from low to high severity. A seventh scenario examines a global impact in which a mild pandemic occurs each year indefinitely.

But even in the low-severity model—or best-case scenario of the seven, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive—ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million. They modeled their estimates on the Hong Kong flu pandemic, an outbreak in 1968-1969 that is estimated to have killed about 1 million people.

In the high-severity model—modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920—the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million. The research aims to help policymakers respond to the economic impact of COVID-19 as the disease continues to spread.

Against such a backdrop, it is all the more important and urgent for all countries to step up communication and cooperation in jointly fighting the epidemic and safeguarding regional and international public health security. While combating COVID-19 at home, China is ready to contribute to the global response.

It is stepping up communication and coordination with the WHO and the international community. After the virus outbreak, China shared its genetic sequence with the WHO at the earliest time possible and notified other countries in a timely manner. With openness, transparency and a high sense of responsibility for global public health security and people’s well-being, it continues information-sharing with the international community including the WHO. It will also strive to enhance coordination and cooperation to advance joint response at regional and global levels to stem the spread of the virus.

It continues experience-sharing and exchange with other countries. China has so far published seven guidelines on COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment and six guidelines on prevention and control, all of which have been translated into multiple foreign languages. It endeavours to share these Chinese solutions with the world and hold exchanges over them. It has discussed its work against the epidemic in video conferences with the European Union, ASEAN, African Union, Caribbean Community, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, South Pacific island countries, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia and others.

It is sending medical specialists to more countries and regions in need. Its Red Cross Society has sent experts to Iran and Iraq, where they conducted intensive work and were acclaimed by local authorities and people. It is planning to send medical experts to Italy as well and stand ready to help more countries in need in this way.

While stock markets tumble, economies face a meltdown, tourism takes a nosedive, hopefully the Ides of March will subside and COVID-19 will also be harnessed.