Technological self-reliance only way forward

LAHORE: Transfer of technology enabled Pakistan to produce hybrid rice seed, which is shielding rice farmers from the coronavirus impact, while failure of solar and electronic sectors in acquiring transferable Chinese technology will make them suffer along with many other industrial sectors.

Since the menace of coronavirus started spreading, all the countries began calculating its impact. The OECD in its earlier estimates calculated that it would eat up 1.1 percent of GDP growth in India, and 0.8 percent in Pakistan.

Some estimates say that it would cost $1 billion to the Pakistani economy, but later estimates suggest the economic losses could exceed $5 billion. This more than doubles the benefit of $2-$2.2 billion that Pakistan would get if oil prices remained at the current level.

One wonders where would an economy go that some economists say is already on a ventilator. A small silver lining in this regard is the hybrid seed technology. This complicated technology required years of research inside Pakistan with the assistance of Chinese scientists.

Guard Rice, a Pakistani firm not only acquired this technology but established its own research facility to improve the yield of non-basmati rice varieties. Pakistan has been exporting hybrid rice seed to Philippines for the last three years. Manila, the capital of Philippines is the headquarters of International Rice Research Institute.

There are some simple technologies that the private sector in Pakistan could have acquired from China. These include the technology of making solar panels that we mostly import from China. Many electronic products that are assembled in Pakistan are made up of mostly imported components.

More than 70 percent of Pakistan’s rice exports come from the non-basmati varieties. Almost 80 percent of the rice farmers in Sindh, where non-basmati varieties are mostly produced use hybrid rice seed.

This includes both domestically produced hybrid seed and seeds imported from China. The import of hybrid seed from China has been impacted by Coronavirus based suspension of trade with China.

Only the seed that has already arrived in the country would be available along with the local variety that incidentally is more popular and gives highest yield of 120-130 maund per acre.

This is more than double the traditional IRRI varieties that yield of 40-50 maund per acre. Local seed producer claims that high yield hybrid rice seed has alleviated poverty among the rice farmers of Sindh. They also assured that they have developed capability and capacity to provide for total non-basmati seed requirements of Pakistani farmers and the coronavirus impact would not affect the rice farmers of Sindh.

This was a rare example of transfer of technology where the producers can survive without any import of inputs and it has paid high dividends to the company that acquired the technology as well as the farmers.

Moreover, it has shielded the farmers from the disruption in trade caused due to the spread of the coronavirus. In India, the hybrid and biotech varieties of seeds were developed by the public sector after which the private sector also pitched in.

In Pakistan, the lead was provided by many private sector seed companies, while the public sector remained dormant despite employing thousands of agricultural scientists (that get no funds for research as the allocated budget hardly covers their salaries).

The private sector has not shown the foresight to go for technology transfer of many products that they either import in finished form or assemble in the country by importing the components.

This is despite the fact that the demand for those products is increasing exponentially in the Pakistani market. For instance, there is great demand both in the domestic and industrial sector for solar power, but everything from solar panels to the solar modules have to be imported (mostly from China where coronavirus problem is highest).

We may now see shortage of these panels or use of substandard panels by unscrupulous elements that exist large in numbers. There are many split air conditioner producing units that developed a local vending base and usually import compressors only.

They would make good business in coming summer. Those depending on imports for most components would have to halt production.

Others sectors that would suffer include pharmaceuticals. We import most of the basic and intermediates that give medicines their therapeutic value from China.

China is dominant in the battery supply chain and battery manufacturers would suffer. Suspension of dyes and chemical imports from China would increase their cost. The yarn and fabric exports would also suffer badly.

The spread of coronavirus has made experts realise the importance of decentralisation and technological self-reliance, as all industries, technologies, and supply chains are affected by the shutdown in China.