War and peace

There is consistent evidence coming in from Afghanistan that the agreement intended to bring peace to the country signed between the US and the Taliban is falling apart. The fact that this has happened less than a week after the signatures were put on paper by Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Baradar is a terribly ill omen for the people of Afghanistan who have known no peace since the Soviet invasion of 1979. On Friday, Taliban gunmen attacked a gathering of politicians at which Abdullah Abdullah, archrival to President Ashraf Ghani and former chief executive of the country, was also present. At least 32 persons were killed and almost double that number injured.

Abdullah Abdullah escaped injury but the fact that it took Afghan forces who reached the spot after some delay more than five hours to apprehend the assailants is hardly reassuring. Just a day after the US signed the peace deal, Taliban forces had stepped up violence, effectively ending the clause regarding a reduction in armed attacks by attacking 42 checkposts in the Helmand province. The US retaliated by aerially striking a Taliban camp. With Abdullah Abdullah also refusing to accept Ashraf Ghani as president, just as the Taliban do, and no signs of an intra-Afghan dialogue between the Taliban and Kabul government taking off, it does not appear that the promise of peace is to be fulfilled.

A similar breakdown of peace deals with the Taliban has been seen before. Senior US military analysts and retired officials, writing for academic journals in the US, have said they see no chances of the Taliban sticking to the pledges they have made. They have also said the US has reliable evidence that the Taliban had no intention of allowing the Afghan government an opportunity to rule and will try to bring it down as quickly as possible as soon as a US troop withdrawal takes place. There is recognition that the region needs stability, but then in terms of geopolitics Pakistan would also like to see an allied government in Kabul. Indian intervention has made that conviction stronger. President Donald Trump, who continues to tweet out optimistic messages, has in his latest remark commented sanguinely that a country needs to look after itself. This comes after decades of direct US intervention in Afghanistan. Clearly the US role simply made matters worse. We can only hope that through some miracle, the Afghans are indeed able to help themselves and get the peace they so very desperately need.