Modi’s war bluff

February 8, 2020 may go down as the day Delhi spun out of the BJP’s orbit, again. The make-believe mantra of an imminent war with Pakistan does not sell when the voters of 20 million strong metropolis go to elect their city state government.

What a disappointment for hatemongers only months after they had staged the drama of a mini air war with Pakistan, successfully diverting the national electorate’s attention from a faltering economy and the daily concerns of a common man’s life.

Modi, a congenital liar and his likely successor Amit, a convict, somehow believe that they can fool the people all the time by conjuring the threat from India’s smaller neighbour, which many Indians like to write off as a faltering if not a failing state.

The divisive actions of the Modi/Amit led BJP government since May 2019 have gradually but surely led to worries within and outside India about where the world’s second most populous nation is heading. ‘Intolerant India’, the title of a recent cover story in The Economist summed up the BJP’s divide and rule policies as it was seen to be failing to deliver its promises to the electorate.

While the world media, humanitarian organizations and important parliaments have reacted strongly to the violations of international humanitarian law in India, governments with some exceptions are seen as placating the government in New Delhi so as not to hurt their business interests including multibillion defence deals.

Whatever happens to Indian democracy is of direct relevance to Pakistan’s people. As military governments rose and fell over here, India looked as a role model to those aspiring for civilian rule. While the northern neighbours were under monarchical or autocratic rule, India demonstrated some alteration in power to reflect the electorate’s wishes. Indira Gandhi’s urge to assume dictatorial powers was resisted successfully.

Today, though, the Indian people have a regime that is wedded to a supremacist if not Nazi philosophy. It was almost inconceivable that the Union home minister would ask for a National Register of Citizens to create different classes of Indians based on religion. Not only has that happened but its proponent Amit Shah is seen as a strong contender to become the country’s next prime minister.

The Hindutva brigade is unlikely to be deterred by their defeat in Delhi’s election because the BJP made a clean sweep in the Lok Sabha polls in the capital area. They are also dismissive of the protests against their discriminatory actions. Modi is betting on the majority voting bank that gave him a massive victory in the 2019 elections. Yet, the real test will come in the state elections ahead notably in the most populous Uttar Pradesh (UP) state where a rabid extremist has been chief minister. Adityanath proudly flouts his intolerance toward India’s 200 million Muslims who constitute 15 percent of the population.

The Modi government’s most brazen and systematic violation of human rights, UN resolutions and bilateral agreements has gone on in the IOK since August, 2019. The extent and duration of the lockdown in force in Kashmir is unprecedented. International opinion is outraged by the BJP government’s reign of terror but Indian diplomacy is working hard to buy time as seen in the European Parliament’s decision to postpone the vote on a resolution on Kashmir till after Modi’s visit to Brussels in mid-March.

Modi intends to threaten the EU with adverse economic consequences if the condemnatory resolution is passed as proposed by a massive majority of the European Parliament members. New Delhi has already initiated punitive measures against countries like Malaysia whose leaders have publicly condemned India’s attempts at the colonization of the occupied territory by unilateral revocation of its special status enshrined in the Indian constitution.

The indifference shown by the major Gulf countries over the plight of the Kashmiris has caused huge disappointment to the people and government of Pakistan. The idea of Islamic solidarity lies in tatters as Muslims in Kashmir, Palestine and Myanmar are forced to live under miserable conditions. Major powers, with the exception of China, are mum over the lockdown in Kashmir so as not to hurt their relations with India. The West in general and the US in particular are keen to associate India with their plans to contain China in the period ahead.

Yet, the BJP leadership cannot remain contented with India’s blackmail of the world powers because they have had little success on the ground where the Kashmiris’ hatred for the occupiers and their yearning to link up with Pakistan rise in parallel. India, which has the world’s largest segment of the poor, cannot succeed by devoting more economic and military resources to keep the Kashmiri people under subjugation.

Modi is fond of conjuring war with Pakistan which according to him would last only a few days. He may be right as no war between the two countries went beyond a couple of weeks because the P-5 come into action when these poor nations go over the brink. They dread a nuclear conflict with incalculable consequences and will do everything to force a ceasefire if a conventional war begins.

The truth is that behind the smokescreen of an open war, India is already carrying out a hybrid war against Pakistan. A clear manifestation of that is the daily aggression by Indian forces across the LoC. Knowledgeable sources feel that in so doing, India is hoping to provoke Pakistan into a real war.

Michael Kugelman, a US researcher closely following the situation, has also referred to the possibility of India provoking a war in 2020. Modi only needs to remember that he will find Pakistan ready and able meet that challenge.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com