As 2020 begins

We are barely two weeks into the new year, and all hopes of 2020 bringing a measure of peace have faded away.

The year has begun with major hostilities between the US and Iran. On January 3, on President Trump’s orders Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike in Iraq. The world then waited with bated breath to see how Iran would react.

In other words, it was totally in Iran’s hands whether the conflict would spiral out of control. Had that happened the entire region would have gone up in flames. Thankfully, Iran decided to take a measured stance and avoided harming American personnel in the area, allowing President Trump to also step back from the brink.

Several regional leaders are said to have played a constructive role in mediating between the two sides, among them PM Imran Khan. His efforts were praised by senior US officials.

It would be useful to take a look at the forces driving such conflicts. Acrimony between the US and Iran goes back several decades. However, with the signing of the JCPOA in 2015 between Iran and major world powers, there had been a glimmer of hope. Trump of course scuttled the deal in 2018 and has since then launched a campaign of maximum pressure on Iran crippling their economy.

The forces behind US government’s pressure campaign are many. Israel feels threatened by Iran, and Netanyahu has led a full-throated campaign against the JCPOA, finally finding a sympathetic ear in the Trump administration. Saudi Arabia also has its conflicts with Iran and has been lobbying Trump to take action.

Of course, there are many other forces at work behind the scenes. The Trump administration claimed Gen Soleimani was planning an imminent attack on US personnel. Evidence provided by the administration of the imminent nature of the threat was flimsy at best. Many congressmen and senators came away completely unconvinced by government briefings, including some from Trump’s own Republican Party.

Right-wing media in the US, led by Fox News, immediately sprang into action in defence of Soleimani’s assassination. Many so-called defence experts were brought on air to defend the administration’s actions. It is interesting to note that many former officials who had raised an alarm about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) leading the US into a disastrous war in 2003 are at it again. Imminence of the threat from Soleimani is the new equivalent of the WMD call to war.

It has also been revealed many of these former senior military officers are also on the payroll of major defence contractors. They are consultants, advisors, or board members of major defence firms that have much to gain from hostilities in the Middle East. Interestingly, when these experts appear on Fox News, only their military credentials are revealed with no mention of their present links with major defence contractors and arm suppliers.

Also important in understanding many of the US government actions is the political funding mechanism in the US. All elected officials rely heavily on financial donations to their campaigns by individuals and organizations. It is not surprising then that the defence industry is the single largest donor to politicians.

Back in the 1950s, president Eisenhower, a retired general himself, had warned against manipulations by the ‘military-industrial complex’. Sadly, this industry is now a big influencer in moulding US defence policy.

And 2020 being an election year, this is only the beginning. Trump himself predicted in 2011 that the president of the US will start a war against Iran to get himself elected. Quite a prescient statement it turns out.

The writer is a freelance contributor based in Washington DC.

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