Calmer times?

The targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani by a US drone at Iraq’s airport a few days ago has led to very real fears of heightened tensions in the region and even of a spillover into war. The stance taken by US President Donald Trump who remained completely unrepentant about the killing of a foreign leader of high standing created more anger in Iran and amidst its allies, notably in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Fears were heightened further when a Ukrainian airliner crashed minutes after taking off from Tehran airport. There is no evidence of any link between this crash which killed at least 175 people and any Iranian military action. However Swiss Airlines, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines and several other major carriers have announced they will not be overflying Iran.

There is however some sense that things may have reached at least a temporary settlement. Surprisingly this arises from Iranian claims that its missiles targeted at least two US bases in Iraq and killed some 80 US soldiers. President Trump has denied any casualties or major damage but warned that sanctions against Iran will be stepped up. This would create further hardships in a country already suffering as a consequence of Western economic restrictions, and where the death of Soleimani has been met with an outpouring of grief. However, we can only hope that there will be de-escalation in the region. Wars can lead only to mass deaths and mayhem. While it is true that the US has not won a major war since WW II, its actions through the decades resulted in the virtual destruction of Vietnam and later Iraq even though it emerged as the loser in these conflicts. Realistically speaking, there can be no question of Iran taking on the US.

On its part, Pakistan has stressed it seeks only peace and de-escalation in the region. The adviser to the PM on security has assured the public that the country is under no pressure to play a role in the conflict. Certainly, Pakistan as an ally of Saudi Arabia and the US as well as a neighbour of Iran cannot afford instability on its western border or anything resembling conflict. For the sake of all people in the region we must hope that the confrontation does not expand and boil over.