Politics from Raiwind to Zaman Park

ISLAMABAD: Imran Khan is a popular leader but how serious a challenge he can pose to the Sharif brothers in Punjab is yet to be determined despite back-to-back verdicts of Election Tribunals of two important Lahore constituencies, which certainly has given boost to his politics. Now, it is Zaman Park vs Raiwind that will set the political discourse of this country.
NA-125, which was initially won by PML(N), leader, Khawaja Saad Rafiq and NA-122, won by Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, who later become the National Assembly Speaker, were among the four constituencies whose results Imran had questioned and suspected foul play. While Khwaja Saad’s decision came some two months back, Sadiq suffered a setback on Saturday.
Their future now hangs in the balance. While the ETs had declared elections in both constituencies null and void the decision on other two is still awaited and if their verdicts are also similar it would serve as Imran’s launching pad for another movement.
On the other hand, if the two PML leaders win the legal battle in the Supreme Court, it would be yet another blow for Imran, who till Saturday, had not recovered from the Judicial Commission’s report.
Imran’s post-2011 politics and popularity certainly surprised Sharifs, after he held a huge public meeting in Lahore, but Sharifs regained power in the general elections 2013 and Nawaz Sharif become the Prime Minister for a record third time.
The importance of these two constituencies, NA-125 and now NA-122, is in the fact that they belong to two strongest PML leaders in Lahore after Sharifs. Thus, the two ET verdicts have created problems for Sharifs, who till recently were celebrating their moral and legal victory after Judicial Commission report, which vindicated their stance that there was no organised rigging nor PML(N) was involved in election irregularities.
Imran though accepted the JC’s decision but continued his attack on the Sharifs and even after Saturday’s ET verdict repeated his old stance that the 2013 elections were “rigged and fixed,” by PML(N), Election Commission and the Returning Officers. This itself is a violation of PTI’s own commitment and written agreement.
Despite losing the JC battle Imran kept the pressure on PML-N, which perhaps could not capitalise on the favourable JC report . Imran often gives surprises to his own party leaders by not going to NA session and by passing insulting remarks about the Parliament. It is his style of politics and he has succeeded in pulling the party out from the JC debacle.
His consistent “u-turns” have raised many questions within the party and outside. His surprised announcement of the revival of “dharna” was not only against his earlier claim that he would never adopt dharna politics, but could also put the party to yet another test.
What Imran needs to understand is that he would gain nothing even if all the members of the Election Commission and chairman CEC resigned. The nomination for the new EC would again come from this very Parliament and with the consent of leader of the House and leader of the opposition. Secondly, after the 18th amendment, crucial veto power of the chairman ECP has been withdrawn.
It is because of Imran’s style of politics that PTI’s internal conflict has sharpened even at the lower level but then he believes what the people around him tell him. He is quite capable of taking risk in keeping with his cricketing track record.
Imran currently enjoys an upper hand but when it comes to Punjab Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif still have a firm control over the province.
It is too early to predict the long term impact of NA-122, but unless Ayaz Sadiq and Khwaja Saad Rafiq win their appeals Sharifs would see Imran as a formidable challenge.
Imran, now anxiously awaits the decision on Jahangir Tareen’s and Hamid Khan’s constituencies. He is particularly interested in JT seat.
So, what will Imran do next? Some party leaders and critics consider Captain’s own strategy his biggest enemy. For instance, he announced “new dharna,” without consulting the party or awaiting the decision on appeals. By giving two weeks’ deadline to the Election Commission or another long March, Imran has actually offered a “Free Hit’ to Sharifs.
The dilemma of the PTI is that it is being run by a group of close aides of its Chairman. Because of Imran’s unprecedented popularity, those saner voices in the PTI who have been sidelined keep silent.
Imran would like to win NA-122, for a variety of reasons: (1) He has already decided to make Lahore his political base and only on Saturday he inaugurated the Chairman’s Secretariat; (2) He knows that it is Sharifs’ home town and wants to break their popularity myth; (3) Lahore is heart of Punjab, and in our political system winning Punjab means winning Pakistan and (4) It is Imran’s home town as well.
His decision to make Lahore his political has also made his other opponents a bid nervous too, like the Chouhdries of Gujrat who only recently criticised PTI for damaging their party. Pakistan
People’s Party chairman Asif Ali Zardari who in 2008 had announced to make Lahore his political base could only build the huge Bilawal House but practically buried the party.
There is no doubt that the situation is heading for another two party system; only that this time PTI has replaced PPP, while PML(N), has consolidated its position in the last few years. Therefore, it would not be surprising if some of top PPP leaders from Lahore would joined PTI before the next general elections.
Sharif brothers have never faced this kind of challenge in their political career since 80s. August 22, 2015, certainly belonged to Imran and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf when, after several hours of nerve-breaking moment, the ET Judge, Mr Justice Kazim Malik announced the short order, declaring NA-122 results null and void and called for re-election.
If this decision had gone against Imran it would have caused immense damage to his politics and PTI would have gone back to the era of 2002 .
Although there were other developments too, like uncertainty over Pak-India talks and the MQM threat of not returning to the Assemblies, it was NA-122 decision that the Sharif brothers anxiously awaited and soon decided to challenge it in the Supreme Court, as they did in Khawaja Saad Rafiq’s case.
It was like a dream come true for Imran, who had not yet fully recovered from the shock of Judicial Commission report, which had rejected all his three claims including the allegation of organised rigging.
It is now his choice to look for a way forward and bring electoral reforms, organise his party, hope for good performance in the local bodies elections or to revive dharna politics, give call for another long march and wait for the Umpire’s finger.
One thing is certain: Imran operating from Zaman Park can be more dangerous for Sharifs than Imran operating from Banigala,

The writer is the senior analyst and columnist of Geo, The News and jang.