The Nawaz Sharif factor

Just when the nation’s populace at large is nervously bracing itself for Maulala Fazlur Rehman’s ‘Azadi March’, all attention is shifted to the critical illness of Nawaz Sharif. And this could be a turning point in the ongoing struggle between Imran Khan’s beleaguered government and its gathering opposition.

To a considerable extent, the focus will now be on the charismatic appeal of a leader who has remained steadfast in his defiance, with the torch being passed to his intrepid daughter. We still have to wait to see the impact of the Azadi March; October 31 is to be the D-Day when the assault on Islamabad is planned.

Meanwhile, we have to contend with the fact that Nawaz Sharif is critically unwell and not really out of danger. The circumstances in which this crisis has unfolded have caused a lot of pain and anxiety among the supporters of the PML-N leader. It has become obvious that he was denied the necessary medical care at the right time. Besides, initial comments made by the PTI ministers have aggravated the anger that is building up among the PML-N’s rank and file. In this process, Nawaz Sharif’s image has risen.

An editorial on Nawaz Sharif’s health, published on Friday in an English daily, pointedly said: “Some official responses to the illness and treatment of Mian Nawaz Sharif can easily earn the PTI setup pride of place among the most blundering governments”. It should be noted that this was not the time for the PTI ministers to behave in such a flippant manner because the adverse political environment would call for maturity and prudence.

There has been a lot of comment, in recent days, on the leading role that the JUI-F chief has assigned for himself as the leader of a movement that also has the support of the two mainstream and other smaller parties. He has emerged as the embodiment of the entire opposition. But his identity as a religious leader, visibly inclined to play the religion card, has led to misgivings among the progressive followers of other parties. The PPP had expressed its reservations about it. Concerns have been raised about the Maulana’s stance on such issues as women’s rights.

But Nawaz Sharif’s emergence as a tragic hero on the national political horizon should somewhat mitigate these worries. The catch here is that it is the Maulana’s party that has the committed following and organizational strength to mobilise large gatherings. His preparations for the big show have also been very impressive, given the so-called million marches that have already been staged.

In any case, it is still not easy to imagine that Maulana Fazlur Rehman can take Islamabad by storm. Unless there is something there to tip the balance, the power of the street can rarely overwhelm the power of the state. At the same time that Imran Khan has said that the march would not be blocked if it takes place within the ambit of law and the Supreme Court decision, an incredible number of containers are placed in position to block roads and bridges. There have been drills by the police to push back the crowds. Clashes are foretold.

Against this perspective, the confidence that Maulana Fazlur Rehman exudes in his encounters with the media is inexplicable. On his part, Imran Khan has reasons to not be intimidated by the protest that is planned. The big headline in this newspaper on Thursday put it simply: “Army stands behind me: PM”. Another hint was provided by a TV anchor, who said that Maulana had already had a meeting with the army chief who is believed to have reiterated his obligation to uphold democracy and constitution.

Still, an enterprise of the magnitude of Azadi March can surely have unintended and unexpected consequences. Now we also have to take the Nawaz Sharif factor into account. Will there be a passionate, popular stirring in central Punjab to show solidarity with a leader who has surprised his adversaries by taking arms against a sea of troubles, so to say.

Then, there is the rising image of Maryam and unwittingly the officials and the ministers who displayed their lack of civility, even pettiness, in their behaviour and statements, have enhanced her importance. For many, she is the silver lining in the midst of all the setbacks that the PML-N and the opposition in general have suffered. When it comes to a generational change in the leadership of the mainstream parties, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is also a rising star, though he carries a heavier burden in the context of his party’s poor following in Punjab.

There is a surge in popular discontent. Some aggrieved segments of society, such as young doctors and teachers, have been out on the streets. But there is little chance for an organised political movement involving a cross-section of the country’s burgeoning youth. There is widespread apathy and alienation. There is also a kind of loss of hope in the people’s power to dictate any meaningful change.

Incidentally, many countries across continents are witnessing popular unrest and we watch, with envy, the mass demonstrations in places like Hong Kong and Beirut. But we seem to be incapable of creating that kind of civil and political configuration. Our people easily lapse into mob behaviour. Most of our actions, in personal or collective lives, are influenced by anger or intolerance or hate.

So what can we expect from Azadi March? As I said, irrespective of what happens on the streets, there is bound to be some political fallout. Nawaz Sharif’s illness, with his condition described as serious, will have its impact. He has been given bail on medical grounds by the Lahore High Court in the Chaudhry Sugar Mills case and his release now depends on bail in the Al Azizia case being heard by the Islamabad High Court.

In any case, a lot of action on the ground is in the offing. What we cannot readily decipher is the action that takes place behind the curtains.

The writer is a senior journalist.

Email: ghazi_salahuddin@hotmail.com